Why is France betting on Oman amid the Hormuz crisis?

French President Emmanuel Macron, sporting his now-infamous aviator sunglasses, and Oman’s turbaned sultan made a striking pair as they shook hands for reporters before their meeting at Paris’s Élysée Palace on Monday. Their message was clear: France and Oman are set to deepen economic ties. 

"I'm eager to cooperate more and grow our relationship," Macron said, announcing a series of major contracts for French companies. The sultan responded in kind: "We are opening our doors to all new business partners." 

It was Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s first state visit to France since his ascension to the throne in 2020 following the death of his cousin, Sultan Qaboos bin Said.

Qaboos was one of the Middle East’s longest-serving rulers. During his nearly 50 years as absolute monarch, he dramatically modernised and developed the country’s economy and ended its international isolation, deftly positioning it as “the Switzerland of the Middle East” between its neighbouring Gulf states, Iran, and their hotbed of thorny relationships.

Watch morePragmatic diplomacy: 'Oman is committed to de-escalation & peace in the region', analyst says

Now the sultanate's long-held neutrality is being tested and shifted, given Oman’s geographically advantageous position with territorial waters across from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The critical waterway has been paralysed since February 28, when US-Israeli strikes on Iran first began.

Prior to the war, 20 percent of the world's oil passed through the strait daily, free of charge. The Iranian regime now intends to impose a toll – or “maritime service fee”, when it plays on semantics – on ships passing through the waterway. The US has repeatedly rejected any sort of fee, repeatedly insisting that the strait is an "international waterway".

Macron and Sultan Haitham on Monday called for "free navigation, without conditions or restrictions" through the Strait of Hormuz.

Read moreHow ships are risking ‘safe’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz ‘not Iranian property’

Situated between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, the Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime access point between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Since the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea came into force in 1994, the two countries have exercised sovereignty over their respective waters and have jointly overseen the legal framework for this strategic maritime corridor.

Circumventing Iranian controls by sailing through the Omani side of the passage – roughly 30 kilometres wide – is "entirely possible", France's ambassador to Oman, Nabil Hajlaoui, said Tuesday in an interview with FRANCE 24, insisting that the strait “is not Iranian property”.

"The strait is indeed divided between Iranian and Omani territorial waters" – but "the strategic reality is different", noted Clément Therme, a research fellow at the International Institute for Iranian Studies. "This is because Iran retains significant military capability which enables it to influence security across the entire region."

Paris-Muscat joint operations

Iran began laying mines in the strait – a strategic waterway for global trade – back in March, according to several US sources. During Sultan Haitham’s visit, Muscat and Paris agreed to "conduct joint demining operations" in the strait – a proposal that did not go down well with Tehran. 

Demining "is carried out by Iran and no other country", responded Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, calling on Paris "not to further complicate" the situation "with its provocations".

Paris's growing relationship with Muscat enables France "to retain some economic and diplomatic presence" in the region, but clearly shows that France's influence is "extremely fragile", said Sébastien Boussois, a political scientist and director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE).

Oman is not one of the key players influencing the resolution of the crisis, Boussois added, explaining that Iran, the US, Pakistan and, above all, Qatar hold all the cards.  

Macron doesn't have an "exceptional relationship" with Qatar, Boussois added, due to his closer ties with the United Arab Emirates. Oman appears to be a choice by default. 

"France has no real clout in the region," Boussois said, despite Macron's diplomatic activism.

Calculating beyond Hormuz

But by betting on Muscat, Paris is looking beyond the Hormuz crisis, suggested Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for Prospective and Security in Europe (IPSE).

France can easily lay claim to be a power player in the Indo-Pacific region. It possesses the world's second-largest exclusive economic zone, largely formed of its overseas territories. On June 8, it took over the rotating presidency of the Indian Ocean Commission.

"Oman is above all an Indian Ocean power, a key player in the ability to create a new security architecture for the countries bordering the Indian Ocean," Dupuy said.

Muscat has another advantage, he added. Oman has been far less affected than its neighbours by the recent war, and as such, "the sultanate ultimately appears as a safer destination" for investment. On June 29, French environmental services giant Suez announced a €2 billion contract for water management in Oman – one of the biggest in its history.

Iran-US knot

Special ties with Oman also offer certain diplomatic advantages. Muscat "enjoys a special position because of its ability to maintain trusting relations with Western countries, the Gulf monarchies, and Iran alike. Oman has regularly played a mediating role in regional crises, particularly between Washington and Tehran, for several decades," said Therme.

"But today, the credibility of France's strategy depends on how the relationship between the United States and Iran evolves," he added.

"A return to the pre-war situation would give Paris's initiatives real scope for action. If tensions persist, France will be hard-pressed to do more than making calls for de-escalation."

This article was translated from the original in French by Nicolette Bundy.