Trump’s Iran war hands Putin £34bn windfall as oil prices rescue Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (Image: Getty)

Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran have delivered Vladimir Putin a £34 billion oil windfall, rescuing Russia’s battered finances and easing pressure to cut spending on its Ukraine war, data has indicated. Global oil prices have surged from around $70 a barrel before the late-February launch of Operation Epic Fury to above $110, with Brent briefly topping that level.

This follows disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of prolonged supply shocks. The “Iran War Premium” has transformed Moscow’s fiscal outlook at a critical moment. Russian budget oil and gas revenues are projected to soar 70% in April to 0.9 trillion roubles — the highest monthly figure since October 2025 — according to calculations based on a $75 taxation price.

A destroyed residential building in northern Tehran (Image: Getty)

The extra funds, estimated at roughly 3.5 trillion roubles (£34bn) for the year, could flip a near-exhausted 2026 deficit into surplus. Before the conflict, the Kremlin was grappling with sanctions, mounting costs of the Ukraine invasion and falling energy income.

Officials had planned to lower the fiscal “cut-off” price from the current $59 a barrel, directing more revenues into the National Wealth Fund while imposing spending cuts. Those measures have now been postponed, possibly until 2027, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who on February 25 had promised to announce tighter budget rules within two weeks, told reporters after meeting President Putin on Monday: “The government will seek a ‘balanced’ approach to the new revenues while pursuing medium-term protection against oil volatility.”

The cabinet will publish updated macro forecasts in April, including a revised average oil price assumption for the year. The Trump administration has issued temporary sanctions waivers allowing hundreds of millions of barrels of stranded Russian oil to reach global markets, primarily India and China.

Donald Trump claims the US is holding talks with Iran

Officials cited the need to stabilise supplies and curb “Trumpflation” at home, despite sharp criticism that the policy has inadvertently bankrolled Putin’s military machine.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina described the budget rule as Russia’s strongest shield against external shocks but cautioned: “It is too early to assess the full economic impact.”

Even if the Iran crisis ends abruptly, Russian policymakers expect a lingering risk premium on oil prices. The National Wealth Fund, held mostly in yuan, has already influenced forex markets; a pause in related sales contributed to a 6% rouble slide in March.

The financial lifeline arrives as Washington intensifies pressure on Kyiv. Ukrainian officials and multiple reports have warned that the US is pushing Ukraine to withdraw troops from parts of the Donbas region it still controls, in exchange for security guarantees and economic incentives.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has resisted the idea, warning that ceding territory could invite further Russian demands.

US-brokered peace talks have been postponed amid the Middle East focus, while Russian forces continue incremental advances.

Putin has repeatedly stated: “Moscow will seize the entire Donbas by force if Ukrainian troops do not withdraw.”

One insider briefed on the discussions said: “The government views the windfall as temporary but sufficient to delay painful choices.”