Lukashenko 'not an independent actor’: opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya on why Belarus needs Russia

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is warming up to the West.

In one of the most dramatic moments of the diplomatic thaw, 250 former Belarusian political prisoners – many of them visibly thin – stepped out of a bus on March 19 as part of the single largest prisoner release the US has negotiated with Belarus thus far. Belarus released 123 prisoners in December in exchange for an easing of US sanctions.

Many of the prisoners from last week’s release had been incarcerated for more than five years, ever since the disputed 2020 presidential election spurred mass protests and a brutal police crackdown in response. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who challenged Lukashenko for the presidency, was forced into exile – first in Lithuania and later in Poland, from where she now continues the fight for a democratic Belarus. 

US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to Belarus, John Coale, called the prisoner’s release "a significant humanitarian milestone and a testament to the President’s commitment to direct, hard-nosed diplomacy".

Fifteen of those freed were sent to neighbouring Lithuania, while the remainder stayed in Belarus.

As part of the deal, the US announced further sanctions relief for the Belarusian financial sector, including the finance ministry and the Development Bank of Belarus, as well as three potash companies: Belaruskali, Belusian Potash Company and Agrorozkvit.

Reports have now emerged of the US possibly inviting Lukashenko to meet with Trump at the White House or at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. Such a visit would be a boon for the Belarusian leader, who has faced international isolation and crippling sanctions for years.

But Lukashenko is not satisfied with only cultivating ties with the West. 

After 2014, "the aim was to make Belarusian foreign policy genuinely ‘multi-vectoral’, or in Lukashenko’s clumsy phrase, ‘many-winged’", wrote Andrew Wilson in “Belarus: The last European dictatorship.”  

Wilson noted that foreign policy discourse in Belarus was rife with terms like “balance”, “proportion” and “strategic hedging”. But the aim wasn’t to strike a “balance” in the literal sense, “with Belarus halfway along some metaphorical plank between Russia and the West”. Belarus’s main political and economic ties were still with Russia, yet Minsk “was making sovereign choices to stress its sovereignty”.

From this perspective, Lukashenko’s official state visit to Pyongyang on March 25 for talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un makes sense, even as Kim accuses Belarus's new ally in Washington of global “state terrorism and aggression”.

FRANCE 24 spoke to Tsikhanouskaya, who continues to challenge the Lukashenko dictatorship from exile, on why he cannot forego his relationship with Russia.

What is Lukashenko’s strategy in holding regular talks with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to Belarus, John Coale?

We should be very clear: Lukashenko is not suddenly changing. He is adapting. He is trying to survive. His strategy is very simple. He wants to open a small door to the West – not to change the system, but to reduce pressure on himself. He tries to look like a partner. He continues repression inside the country. At the same time, we welcome any humanitarian results of such contacts. Every released political prisoner is a victory and a life saved. These are innocent people who have gone through immense suffering. I am grateful for efforts that help free them, especially to US Special Envoy John Coale.

But the regime is playing a cynical game – it releases some people, while taking new hostages. So, this is not a solution yet. The goal must be to end repression completely. Also, those released must be allowed to stay in the country and be safe.

This isn’t the first time that Lukashenko has received, and been received by, high-level representatives from the West. Are these efforts reducing Belarus’s dependence on Russia?

No, we have seen this before. Lukashenko has always played this game with the West – pretending that he might move away from Russia, signalling, “Give me more, engage me, and I will be with the West”. It was always just a game. Putin effectively gave him carte blanche to do this – to reduce the pressure on the Russian budget, which has long been sustaining Lukashenko’s regime. He simply allowed him to “graze in someone else’s pasture”.

Throughout all 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has consistently oriented himself toward Russia. He does not see any alternative for himself other than a shared future with Russia. For all 30 years, he has systematically destroyed Belarusian identity and the Belarusian language. Russian propaganda flows into Belarus directly through Belarusian TV channels without any barriers. He is a product and an adherent of the “Russian world”. He is the most pro-Russian politician possible on the territory of Belarus. He is tied to Russia historically, ideologically, politically, economically and militarily. His future lies only with Russia.

He knows he lost in 2020. And he knows that he will only be able to stay in power with Russia – staying in power is the very meaning of his existence.

That is why these contacts with the United States do not change the strategic reality. Lukashenko is not an independent actor. It is an illusion to think that one can drive a wedge between Lukashenko and Putin. He is trying to gain some room for manoeuvre, but he cannot and does not want to move away from Moscow.

Has the thaw in relations between the Belarusian regime and the West been accompanied by any improvement in the human rights situation?

Unfortunately, no. Repression in Belarus is not decreasing. It is systemic. We continue to see new arrests and political trials. According to human rights defenders, around 900 political prisoners remain. Many are held in isolation, without contact with their families or lawyers. Many are also in serious health condition.  

Those who have been released from prisons and expelled from Belarus have no documents, and their status is unclear. Those who have been released but remain in Belarus are not free: their rights are restricted, they are not even allowed to have a bank card or a bank account, and their status is also unclear. They are warned that they can be sent back to prison at any moment without an additional trial – for drinking alcohol, for example. During holidays, they may be detained and held behind bars without any grounds.

On the very same day when this conditional release of 250 people took place, for example, eight women were sentenced to eight years or more in prison for participating in a neighbourhood chat that dealt with minor social and everyday issues. Their activity was classified as extremist.

This shows the true nature of the regime. Talks with the West have not changed it. We welcome every release. But at the same time, new arrests continue. It is like a revolving door of repression. Until repression ends, pressure on the regime must continue.

Our formula is this: US sanctions in exchange for the release of people, and European sanctions in exchange for the release of the entire country – that is, for real steps toward democratisation.

This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.