Is it safer not to fly this summer? As the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global oil markets, concerns are rising that Europe will run out of jet fuel weeks before the peak summer travel months.
The clock started ticking in mid-April, when the head of the International Energy Agency warned Europe had “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left”.
This week, Transavia became the latest airline – after Ryanair and Volotea – to announce it would cancel some European flights in May and June, citing the exorbitant cost of fuel and difficulties importing kerosene from Gulf countries.
As peace talks between the US and Iran stall and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain frozen, how likely is it that European flights will be grounded en masse this summer? And what can travellers do if their flights are cancelled?
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Shortage fuelled by lack of imports
For weeks the lack of oil and hydrocarbon imports from Gulf countries due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has fuelled speculation about an impending shortage of kerosene, a fuel derived from refined crude oil that powers the vast majority of aircraft engines.
“France produces much less kerosene than it consumes,” said Wouter Dewulf, a professor in the Department of Transport and Regional Economics at the University of Antwerp and AMS. “About 3 million tonnes are produced by French factories each year, while the country consumes 5 million. The extra two million come from overseas, primarily the Middle East.”
Gulf countries do not just export their crude oil, but also refined products such as Jet A-1, the most commonly used aviation kerosene.
The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a shortage of both kinds of product.
In France, data from the Ministry of Energy shows that before the war in the Middle East 50% of the country’s jet fuel was refined in France and 20% in the Middle East with the remaining 30% shipped from Europe, the US and Asia.
Other European counties are in a similar position. “The continent produces very little oil and has reduced its capacity to refine oil in the past few years,” said Thierry Bros, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris and an energy specialist. “It increasingly depends on importing products that have already been refined from overseas, making it particularly vulnerable to international crises.”
France: ‘no risk’ in coming weeks
Even so, “France is in a better position than some of its neighbours,” said Bros, as it is less dependent on imports from the Middle East.
The UK, for example, imports 60 percent of its kerosene from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
The two major airports in Paris – Orly and Charles de Gaulle – should be able to avoid the effects of the fuel shortage, a senior executive at Aéroports de Paris (ADP) said on Wednesday.
“Aéroports de Paris relies on a network of pipelines directly connected to refineries and a terminal in Le Havre,” on France’s north-west coast, the group’s chief strategy officer, Christelle de Robillard, said during a conference.
“The majority of crude oil that powers these facilities comes from North America. So, compared to others, we are in a rather better position,” she added.
If a fuel shortage does come into effect it is more likely to impact France’s smaller airports, but before this stage the country still has two months’ worth of strategic stock to work through, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said on Tuesday.
On the same day, Economy Minister Roland Lescure said this amounted to around two million barrels.
In addition, commercial stockpiles stored in airports would cover around 10 days of operations and reserves of crude oil could be converted into jet fuel if needed.
“At the moment, there is no risk of a kerosene shortage in the coming weeks,” Bregeon added.
Extended war could impact autumn
“The combination of these factors should save the summer,” said Dewulf. “But it remains to be seen how long the current situation will go on. If the conflict continues to drag on, the same questions may arise in autumn around October or November.”
Read moreCrude oil prices hit four-year high as Iran war threatens to drag on
France and Europe are gearing up for a potentially ongoing shortage. The French government will on May 6 meet with airlines to discuss the busy summer period.
The EU unveiled on April 22 its own set of measures to tackle the crisis, including increased monitoring of its kerosene supply and “maximising” production in refineries.
Europe is preparing for “collective action” that “may prove necessary to preserve the functioning of the single market and ensure the continuity of supply”, the EU Commission said.
Travellers can expect price hikes
Although plans are in place to bolster supplies in France and Europe, travellers may face other difficulties.
“We have to distinguish between availability and price,” said Bros. “Just because there isn’t a shortage doesn’t mean that prices for airplane travel won’t shoot up.”
“The price of kerosene has more than doubled due to the war in the Middle East and fuel accounts for up to 40 percent of the cost of an airline ticket,” he added.
The biggest impact will likely be felt among low-cost carriers that prioritise low margins and maximise passenger load.
Hence why operators such as Transavia have already been forced to bump up prices and cancel some of their less-profitable flights.
“It’s not so much a fuel shortage issue as an issue of profitability,” said Bros. “With the rising price of kerosene, a company like Transavia has no other choice but to increase ticket prices. If the cost becomes prohibitive for travellers, and they are unwilling to pay, grounding airplanes might end up being the most financially sound choice.”
“Airlines cancel flights for economic reasons,” Bregeon agreed. “They are flights that are not profitable due to increased fuel costs.”
What to do if your flight is cancelled
What can travellers do if their flight is cancelled? Unfortunately, not much.
Under EU law, airlines have the right to cancel flights as long as they inform passengers 14 days beforehand.
In this instance, they must provide either a refund or the option to reschedule the flight with no extra fees.
They are not obligated to offer compensation if the cancellation is due to “extraordinary circumstances”, such as the current situation caused by the war in the Middle East.
This article was adapted from the French by Joanna York. Click here to read the original.
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