Motorists drive vehicles near a large political banner, depicting missiles being fired behind Iranian demonstrators in solidarity with the government, at Valiasr Square in Tehran on April 6, 2026.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to today's edition of the Daily Open newsletter.
Even by long weekend standards, a lot has happened since U.S. markets closed last Friday.
The news that a deal with Iran has been "largely negotiated" triggered a wave of optimism over the weekend, but U.S. President Donald Trump has since been quick to say he could "walk away" unless that deal is "great and meaningful."
A fresh wave of strikes on Iran by U.S. forces will test the talks, and test the market's glass-half- full view of the recent developments.
What you need to know today
The hope that a resolution to the U.S.-Iran war could be within reach is driving Wall Street futures higher in early trade after the long weekend. Stocks were closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday.
Dow Industrial Average futures are called over 300 points higher, with gains also expected for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
It's been a more volatile session for crude. Both benchmark prices plunged on Monday, but Brent and WTI diverged sharply in early trading on Tuesday. There was no settlement on WTI due to the public holiday in the U.S., which is influencing the trading pattern.
The path towards peace remains challenging.
U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, announced that forces had conducted "self-defense" strikes against Iran in the southern part of the country. CENTCOM targeted missile launch sites and Iranian mine boats.
The action comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday stateside that the talks with Iran were "proceeding nicely." However, he warned that "it will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all," threatening to take things "back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before."
Former CIA director David Petraeus told CNBC that Iran appears to be "blinking," and that any successful peace deal would need to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened without any conditions. This is crucial, as veteran oil market strategist Jeff Currie also told CNBC that oil markets are nearing "minimum operating levels" in Asia, with Europe and the U.S. expected to face shortages in July.
In corporate news, Ferrari has revealed its first fully electric car, in a bold gamble for the Italian luxury car maker. CEO Benedetto Vigna told CNBC in an international TV exclusive that the event marked "a day when we open a new chapter in our history book. It's a day when we can show [the] entire world all what we did, all the people, with passion and daring to do something new, and also changing the way we do."
And finally...
When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula
High volume and short-term markets that ask simple questions with clear resolution rules — that's the formula that Evercore ISI strategists say makes prediction markets helpful for forecasting.
Led by Julian Emanuel, they found that contracts with higher volume produce more reliable probabilities than shallow markets. Similarly, contracts closer to their termination date showed stronger probability versus a long-term contract.
Despite the growth, they avoided calling prediction markets a north star.
— Ananya Chetia
English (US) · 