‘Raulito’ Castro, the Trump administration’s wild card in Cuba

As the US increases pressure on Cuba and the economic and humanitarian situation on the Island deteriorates rapidly, a new figure has emerged in the delicate relationship between the two countries: Raul Rodriguez Castro. 

The grandson of Raul Castro – a former president and the brother of Fidel Castro – appeared sitting next to Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel when he confirmed that negotiations were taking place between the US and Cuba. 

Rodriguez Castro later attended a press conference where Diaz-Canel addressed the island’s economic crisis, which had intensified in recent months after the Trump administration imposed an oil blockade that has repeatedly plunged the island into darkness.   

He has also been appearing more often in public in Cuba, while rumours have emerged about secret negotiations between him and Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American secretary of state.

His emergence marks a break with past practice. “There used to be an effort to protect Raul Rodriguez Castro and let him evolve backstage,” said Thomas Long, a Latin America specialist at the University of Warwick.

Rodriguez Castro, 41, is the son of Déborah Castro Espín, the eldest daughter of Raul Castro, and Rodríguez López-Calleja, who led the state-owned holding company that manages most of the Cuban economy.

But ever since Trump began speaking of regime change on the island, speculation has emerged that Rodriguez Castro could take on a leadership role.

The Trump administration seems to be seeking Diaz-Canel’s ouster from power but is not pushing for action against the Castro family, according to a New York Times report, which cited official sources who preferred to remain anonymous.

The shadow of Raul Castro

Raulito was raised in the inner sanctum of the Castro clan and in strict respect of a regime doctrine that has long benefited his family. He came under the wing of his grandfather, who made him his favourite “and came to trust him the most over time”, said Pablo Uchoa, an expert on security issues in Latin America at the University College of London.    

Rodriguez Castro received both a military education, within an institution that prepares future army officers, and a civilian education, obtaining a double degree in finance and accounting at the University of Havana.  

He began to climb the ranks, attaining the rank of colonel and becoming his grandfather's personal bodyguard during his presidency.

Raul Castro even nominated him to be chief of the General Directorate of Personal Security (DGSP). “It’s a crucial organisation in Cuba because it’s responsible for protecting all the regime’s important people – we know how this is a sensitive issue in Cuba,” said Long.

It is difficult to estimate the real extent of Rodriguez Castro's political influence beyond his role in the security apparatus. But Long said his position at the head of the DGSP and being a colonel “gives him a certain authority in the army, which remains an essential element of the regime”.

And yet the grandson of Raul Castro does not hold a senior position within the government or the Communist Party. He does not seem to be a charismatic leader following in the footsteps of some of his family members. 

“He is clearly not a political star,” said Uchoa.

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Rodriguez Castro remains largely unknown, even in his own country. He is said to have been married more than once and has two children. Another personal detail about him comes from his other nickname – "El Cangrejo" (The Crab), stemming from the fact that he was born with a malformation of one of his fingers.

There have been reports that he enjoys a luxurious lifestyle reserved for the inner circle of Cuban power.

Cuba is not Venezuela

But now he seems to be getting pushed to the forefront of Cuban politics. Faced with the profound crisis in Cuba, the president needed a dose of revolutionary legitimacy incarnated by Castro. President Diaz-Canel “does not have the most solid political base”, noted Long.

For Diaz-Canel, it is likely that “the unparalleled weight of the Castro name" is playing a role in his decision to elevate him, said Rubrick Biegon, a US foreign policy expert at the University of Kent and the author of “US Power in Latin America: Renewing Hegemony".

For Washington, the fact that Rodriguez Castro “isn’t a major actor in Cuba makes it easier to hold secret negotiations”, said Uchoa.

He could also be useful for Washington in any transition after Diaz-Canel is removed from power.

For one, he carries a name that incarnates a certain continuity. Yet as the grandson of Raul Castro, he is somewhat "distanced from the revolutionary generation" which means he could also represent change, said Biegon.

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It would be difficult to imagine that a Castro family member would be Trump’s choice for a new leader in Cuba. “The community of Cuban exiles in Florida probably wouldn’t accept it,” said Biegon. This influential diaspora is represented at the highest echelons of the US government by Rubio.

“Cuba is not Venezuela, either,” said Uchoa. Trump may view Rodriguez Castro as the potential Cuban counterpart to Venezuelan vice president Delcy Rodriguez, who has been cooperating with the US since Nicolas Maduro’s capture in the beginning of this year while remaining loyal to the regime in place. Yet the power in Cuba depends much less on a single man than in Venezuela, said Uchoa. It also doesn’t seem likely that Washington will impose someone during ongoing negotiations if the rest of the regime doesn’t agree.

Another possibility is the collapse of the entire regime caused by the current economic crisis, which some say is unlikely despite repeated internet cuts, blackouts and protests. “There is still no clear sign that the control in the hands of Miguel Diaz-Canel and the party is diminishing,” said Biegon. As for protests, “they appear more like an expression of anger against the lack of water and electricity than calls for regime change”, Uchoa said.

This article was translated from the original in French.