French President Emmanuel Macron will announce updates to France's doctrine on the potential use of nuclear weapons in a keynote speech delivered from a military base hosting the country's ballistic missile submarines.
Macron is expected to outline a new strategy that will spell out how French nuclear weapons fit into Europe’s larger security posture in the wake of new questions raised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and recurring tensions with US President Donald Trump over Ukraine, Greenland and NATO.
European leaders have voiced growing uncertainty about the US commitment to defend Europe under its own nuclear umbrella, a policy long intended to ensure that allies – particularly NATO members – would be protected by US nuclear forces in the event of a threat without developing their own nuclear capabilities.
France is the only nuclear power in the European Union. Macron’s office said the speech is expected to build on his 2020 address on nuclear deterrence, delivered before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine reshaped the security landscape in Europe.
Some European nations have already taken up an offer Macron made last year to discuss France’s nuclear deterrence and even associate European partners in nuclear exercises. Earlier this month, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he’d had “initial talks” with Macron on the issue and had publicly theorised about German Air Force planes possibly being used to carry French nuclear bombs.
The long-planned speech will go ahead despite the expanding Middle East conflict following joint Israeli-US strikes on Iran that decapitated much of its leadership at the weekend. The current violence in the Middle East highlights the importance of France's power and independence to face growing threats, according to a French official, speaking anonymously in line with the French presidency's policy.
"What we are experiencing demonstrates that in the world to come, power and independence will be two indispensable forces for dealing with the proliferation of threats," a member of Macron's team told AFP.
World's fourth-ranking nuclear power
“We have to re-articulate nuclear deterrence," Macron told the Munich Security Council this month, adding that France has already had “a strategic dialogue” with Merz and other European leaders on increasing cooperation.
“Europe has to learn to become a geopolitical power," he told Munich.
France and Britain adopted a joint declaration in July that allows both nations' nuclear forces to be “coordinated” while remaining independent. The UK, no longer an EU member but a NATO ally, is the only other European country with a nuclear deterrent.
France's deterrence doctrine relies on a defensive strategy intended to safeguard the country’s vital interests. While France is also a member of NATO, it maintains full independence over its nuclear forces while contributing to the alliance’s broader deterrence posture.
Under the French Constitution, the president is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the sole to decide on the potential use of nuclear weapons.
France’s Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is the only surface warship in Europe capable of carrying nuclear weapons deployed by French Rafale fighter jets using catapult-assisted takeoffs.
France has four nuclear-armed submarines: Le Triomphant, Le Téméraire (The Fearless), Le Vigilant and Le Terrible, based in Île Longue on the Atlantic coast, one of the nation's most secretive military sites. Since 1972, at least one nuclear-armed submarine has been on patrol at all times, ensuring France’s permanent capacity to carry out a strike.
France has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads, according to latest figures released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). More than 80% of France's warheads are submarine-launched, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
That makes France the world’s fourth-largest nuclear power after Russia in the top spot (with more than 4,300 warheads) followed by the United States (with 3,700) and China (600). The United Kingdom – which is no longer an EU member but still a NATO ally – is estimated to have about 225 warheads, according to SIPRI and FAS.
(FRANCE 24 with AP, AFP and Reuters)
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