Iranians cautiously optimistic about thorny deal with US

Tehran, Iran – The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Iran and the United States has survived its first few rocky days, producing a roadmap to a potential long-term resolution of the war launched by the US and Israel nearly four months ago.

Months of tough political and technical discussions still lie ahead, however, and while Iranians are watching closely, optimism remains checked.

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“We got from daily bombing to talking about buying corn from the US,” Ehsan, who lives in central Tehran, told Al Jazeera. “So, that’s a good change, but our quality of life is still getting worse by the day.”

He was referring to news that Iran will be able to buy humanitarian goods, including food and medicine, by using some of its own funds frozen abroad that are ostensibly to be released as part of the agreement.

Iran’s central bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said in a video message on Tuesday that Tehran could buy corn and wheat and other agricultural products from the US if their price and quality are agreeable, but the text of the agreement does not oblige it to do so.

The US Treasury has also issued a general licence as part of the MoU that authorises the production, delivery and sale of crude oil, petrochemical products and petroleum products of Iranian origin through August 21. Payments owed to Iran for these purchases may be made in US dollar-denominated funds.

This will mean the country can sell oil with less need for hidden discounts, circumnavigation methods and complicated payment or barter routes. Iran has already exported millions of barrels of oil previously loaded on supercarriers over recent days, so that could mean more money being injected into the economy.

But the effects will not be felt by the Iranian people directly or immediately, as they continue to face some of the highest inflation rates in the world, particularly for food and medicine.

The national currency had strengthened to a rate of 1.53 million rials against the US dollar by mid-June, while it was at a low of about 1.9 million in early May. The rate in Tehran’s open market on Wednesday was at 1.64 million.

Hope for ‘a real agreement’

According to Iranian authorities, along with the oil, some traditional maritime trade has been restored through Iran’s southern ports, especially for essential goods stranded in ports of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). But the major neighbouring market, from which many goods were re-exported to Iran, has not been fully reopened to Iranian traders after the war.

“I hope they reach a real agreement this time that can let us have a normal life and business,” a merchant selling imported electric toothbrushes, hairdryers and other personal care devices told Al Jazeera in Tehran’s Jomhouri business district.

“Over the past few months, we’ve kept the work going by registering new orders in the UAE and having them brought over by passengers coming in from Oman. But that’s not sustainable for a business,” he said.

Over recent days, Iranians have also been hampered by a wide-scale disruption of the country’s banking system that affected in-person and online services offered by multiple large lenders.

On Tuesday, most card-based services were disconnected amid what the authorities said was a major cyberattack. People had to use cash at petrol stations and grocery stores.

Many users reported problems, including employers unable to make payments, and borrowers unable to repay their debt obligations on time. Most of the issues were resolved by Wednesday, officials said.

Some people speculated that, jilted by the MoU, Israel may have been behind the apparent cyberattacks, as it is suspected to have been engaged in similar moves before. Multiple major banks and the country’s top cryptocurrency exchange were also hit amid the 12-day war with Israel last year. But the authorities have not officially assigned blame so far.

Planned protest by hardliners

Among the hardcore supporters of the Islamic republic, discontent appears to be running high as they call for avenging the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war and steering clear of any concessions to Washington.

They have referenced reservations expressed in a written message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, as the basis for their argument that talks with the US must be abandoned and Tehran must push to get more from the administration of President Donald Trump.

Speaking on state television’s Channel 2 on Tuesday night, host Mohsen Azadi attacked the central bank governor for saying Iran could buy food from the US.

“You must be insulted by this. It still hasn’t been four months [since Khamenei’s killing]. You want to buy from the vile president who has just said the Iranian people are hungry?” he said, addressing central bank chief Hemmati, in reference to Trump’s comments earlier this week.

More than 50 hardliners in Iran’s parliament, who are angry at any deal, have said they will gather in front of the parliament building on Sunday to announce their protest against the assembly remaining closed despite the end of military attacks. They have also protested against the fact that they have been unable to impeach government ministers for months.

On Tabnak, a state-run news website, more than 80 percent of state supporters taking part in an online poll said they considered the MoU to be detrimental for Iran. The poll page was taken offline earlier this week without any explanation.

But the narrative presented by the government, as well as officials leading the talks, is that Iran continues to negotiate from a place of strength, and that it will follow a principle of “commitment for commitment”.

“Our resistance comes from faith, and was the cause of disappointing the enemy in reaching its goals, and forcing it to surrender in the fields of battle and negotiations,” chief negotiator and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told delegations gathered in Azerbaijan’s Baku on Wednesday during an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation meeting.