Iran believes they hold the cards amid 'dysfunction & chaos in US national security decision-making'

François Picard is pleased to welcome Aaron David Miller, former State Department Middle East negotiator, and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Miller has spent decades working in diplomacy, and he does not see a coherent strategy playing out here, just improvisation shaped by pressure, personality, and shifting leverage. The current negotiations surrounding Iran, Israel, and Lebanon are not driven by trust or a shared vision of resolution, but by tactical necessity and asymmetric perceptions of advantage. According to Miller, the United States is seeking an exit from a conflict it chose to enter, while Iran perceives itself as strategically ascendant and therefore in no rush to compromise, despite widespread damage from relentless airstrikes. The diplomatic architecture being assembled, through intermediaries, informal envoys, and unclear mandates, reflects not strength, but fragmentation within decision-making processes. Progress will not emerge, Miller argues, from symbolic gestures or improvised channels, but from direct, disciplined negotiation grounded in an understanding of history, geography, and the legitimate interests of all actors involved.