Three months into what was originally billed as four-week war, is an end really in sight? Donald Trump's messaging on bargaining with Iran was enough to push Brent crude oil below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks. Both Washington and Tehran are managing expectations of a final deal or "memorandum of understanding".
Time is not on Trump's side, what with a World Cup to host in less than three weeks and inflation that's fast erasing the sweetener of tax breaks for voters ahead of the November midterm elections. But if inflation's bad in the US, Iran has economic ruin to contend with. So again, who blinks first?
Read morePossible Iran-US deal: What we know about the key issues on both sides
And how do regional players align? Gulf states are divided between hawks – led by the United Arab Emirates, who've drawn closer to Israel in this conflict – and doves, led by the Strait of Hormuz's other frontline state Oman.
So which is it: a deal, a return to war or permanent state of limbo over the world's biggest choke point for oil and gas?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Jean-Vincent Russo, Guillaume Gougeon, Charles Wente.
Our guests
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Borzou DARAGAHI Independent journalist
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Paymon AZMOUDEH Senior risk & compliance analyst, Forward Global
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Bertrand BESANCENOT French diplomat; Former French ambassador to Qatar and Saudi Arabia
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Nomi BAR-YAACOV International Peace Negotiator, Geneva Centre for Security Policy
English (US) · 