The former top brass warned: 'Drift is no longer a neutral option.'
11:07, Wed, Feb 11, 2026 Updated: 11:07, Wed, Feb 11, 2026
British and NATO troops during a major exercise in Romania (Image: Getty)
The former head of Britain’s armed forces has warned that decades of underinvestment in Europe’s defences have left the continent in a precarious position. A new report authored by retired General Sir Nick Carter said Europe must become an economic, political and military “superpower” to survive without the US.
The paper, published ahead of the Munich Security Conference, said Europe cannot afford to rely on the US “by default” for military support amid continued concerns over the reliability of the Trump administration. In a three-word warning over Europe’s long-term lack of investment in defence, General Sir Nick simply warned: “It is dangerous.” The former top brass, who was chief of the defence staff between 2018 and 2021, called for an urgent increase in defence spending.
General Sir Nick Carter was chief of the defence staff between 2018 and 2021 (Image: Getty)
He said: “Europe faces a growing external threat in an evolving world order at the same time as its political, fiscal and industrial systems are struggling to respond.
“After decades of underinvestment in defence, this is no longer merely inefficient – it is dangerous.
“The path ahead for Europe’s leaders will not be easy; they cannot afford to fail. Drift is no longer a neutral option.
“Europe’s influence will depend on its ability to take rapid collective action. A Europe that can do so – and take responsibility for its own defence and security – will remain a shaper of the international order. A Europe that cannot, will be shaped by others.”
The paper from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), authored by Gen Sir Nick, said European security now depends on whether leaders can rapidly meet five key tests.
This included sustaining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and negotiate from a position of strength, imposing clear and credible costs for Russian sabotage, subversion and aggression across Europe, as well as addressing the continent’s failure to convert higher defence spending into real military power.
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The report adds European security in the post-Cold War era has relied on a series of assumptions, including that the US could remain the global policeman and Russia could be transformed through trade and integration.
It warns these beliefs “did not collapse overnight — but the world around Europe has hardened”.