World waits to see how Israel will respond to deadly attacks

1 month ago 6

NPR's Steve Inskeep asks Daniel Byman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies about what Israeli retaliation to an Iranian missile attack could look like.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an attack on Israel. A drone strike killed four Israeli soldiers and wounded many others at a military training facility. The big question in the Middle East is what Israel does next. Days ago, Iran launched a major missile attack at Israeli targets, saying it was retaliating for a variety of Israeli actions. Israel intercepted many of those missiles and then said Iran will pay. OK, how? Daniel Byman joins us next. He researches terrorism and counterterrorism at Georgetown University. Good morning.

DANIEL BYMAN: Good morning.

INSKEEP: OK. Just first, does Israel have to respond to Iran, given that it blocked the attack? It was mostly a failure.

BYMAN: So Israel would say it has to respond for several reasons. First, some of the missiles did get through. Now, this - you know, thank goodness for Israel, it didn't cause any significant damage, but they did get through.

INSKEEP: OK.

BYMAN: And this is the second attack. So Israel feels that the first time, it went gentle in its response, and that didn't work, so this time, it's going to need to do a much stronger response.

INSKEEP: OK. What are the options that the Israeli leaders can face?

BYMAN: So there are probably four categories to think about. The first is as Israel did in Lebanon and Gaza, killing senior Iranian leaders. Another is going after Iran's energy infrastructure. Another is going after the nuclear infrastructure. And the last is targeting various missile and other military sites. And, of course, it could be some combination.

INSKEEP: I am listening to those and trying to think of what would or would not cause a wider Mid East war. I'm also thinking of what Israel's closest ally has been saying. President Biden, I understand, has said publicly he doesn't want Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

BYMAN: And the United States has also discouraged attacks on the energy infrastructure. Israel, of course, has, at times, ignored what President Biden wants. But a lot's also going to depend not just on what Israel strikes but how extensively. Is there a lot of damage? Are there a lot of casualties? Does it, from an Iranian point of view, force Iran to escalate itself?

INSKEEP: I can see the dangers from the oil infrastructure, the energy infrastructure. You immediately jolt the oil markets, you harm the economies of countries around the world, and you have this Iranian threat to retaliate by attacking Saudi or other oil facilities if their oil facilities are attacked. But then you named that other option, attacking essentially Iranian military targets, like their missile infrastructure. Is that something - like, can the missiles be found? Is this something Israel probably can do?

BYMAN: So Iran's missile infrastructure is pretty big. There are lots of systems, and a lot of it scattered. But Israel can certainly hit some of it and can weaken the capacity, go after stockpiles. And Israel has shown itself to have excellent intelligence, not only in Lebanon but also in Iran. So there's certainly likely to be some capability, but it's not going to be comprehensive.

INSKEEP: Now, when we started going through the Israeli options here, we noted from the Israeli point of view they feel that they need to establish deterrence. They need to make sure that Iran pays a price so it doesn't attack Israel in the same way again. I guess that's a strategic goal. But in a larger sense, do you see a strategic way out of this war for Israel right now?

BYMAN: So Israel has different goals depending on where you look, but a lot of it's going to depend on having some sort of cease-fire and settlement in Gaza. And in my view, that's been Israel's biggest failure is that it hasn't planned for something to replace Hamas. And a lot spirals from there. In Lebanon and Yemen, groups have said they'll keep fighting as long as Hamas is fighting. Iran, of course, is backing Hamas. So, to me, you got to start in Gaza.

INSKEEP: You say got to start in Gaza. If you're Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is just fighting on and on an option?

BYMAN: I would love to tell you no, but six months ago, I would have said that Israel, at some point, has to stop, and here we are over a year. So I think continued fighting of some sort seems to be likely. Again, there's no plan for some replacement government in Gaza. But the pace is getting more and more intense, and I don't think Israel can sustain that indefinitely.

INSKEEP: Daniel Byman is director of security studies at Georgetown University. He's also with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thanks so much.

BYMAN: Thank you.

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