World faces historic population decline – study

Global fertility may have fallen below replacement level, threatening workforces, aging societies, and mounting economic pressure within roughly one generation Global fertility may have fallen below replacement level for the first time in human history, putting the world population on course for decline within roughly one generation, a new study has warned.The paper, Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World, published earlier this month by economics professor Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania and Northwestern University researcher Patrick Norrick, warns that prolonged low fertility could shrink workforces, rapidly age societies, and strain economies and welfare systems.The researchers estimate that humanity is likely already below replacement fertility – the average number of children per woman needed for each generation to replace itself. The global threshold is around 2.2, while the study puts the current rate at no higher than 2.19, suggesting the world may have only just crossed it. “As of 2026, humanity is likely to be below replacement level: we are having fewer births than we need to keep population constant in the long run… this has nev...