Will Ukraine survive the winter?

As winter approaches, Russia has lifted its ban on exports of diesel and is preparing to sell hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the United States and other countries. The move is part of a deal negotiated between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which resulted in the US Department of the Treasury issuing a sanctions waiver on Russian fuel.The deal was struck amid a growing global crisis over energy supplies and prices. More importantly for Trump, he announced it just a few weeks before the US midterm elections, in which his Republican Party risks losing its majority in both houses of Congress.The deal’s principal significance is political. Trump is in dire need of being seen by American voters as caring for them. The fact that Trump turned to Putin and the latter was in a position to oblige him reflects Russia’s crucial role in the global energy market. But it also revealed the White House’s willingness to dump a client at a time of weakness – Ukraine, in this case – to serve domestic interests.Whether the deal constitutes a turning point in the US approach to the war in Ukraine is not clear yet. The fate of last year’s Anchorage understanding sugges...