Will Low Fertility Rates Return to the Replacement Level Any Time Soon?

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Will low fertility rates return to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman any time soon? A simple answer to this vital demographic question is: unlikely.

Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
Monday, December 15, 2025
Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, December 15 (IPS) - Will low fertility rates return to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman any time soon? A simple answer to this vital demographic question is: unlikely.

A detailed answer about future fertility rates involves the complex interaction of various economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors that influence fertility levels.

Among those factors are economic insecurity, financial pressures, marriage rates, childbearing ages, child mortality levels, contraceptive use, higher education, labor force participation, lifestyle choices, personal goals, concerns about the future, and finding a suitable spouse or partner for family life.

During the recent past, the world’s fertility rate declined significantly from 5.3 births per woman in 1963 to 2.3 births in 2023.

Currently, more than half of all countries and areas worldwide have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Among these low fertility countries are the world’s ten largest national economies (Figure 1).

In contrast to countries with low fertility rates, sub-Saharan African countries have high fertility rates. Together these countries account for about one-third of the world’s current annual births, with that proportion projected to increase to nearly 40% by the mid-century.

Currently, two dozen countries in sub-Saharan Africa have fertility rates of 4 or more births per woman, with half of them having rates of 5 or more births per woman. Some of these countries, such as Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia, have the world’s highest fertility rates at about 6 births per woman (Figure 2).

In countries with low fertility, many young adults choose to prioritize economic security over starting a family. This shift in priorities reflects the financial burden that comes with household expenses, such as housing, food, transportation, childcare, and education.

The average annual costs of raising a child can vary significantly from country to country because of differences in income, family structures, living expenses, and government subsidies. However, couples generally perceive raising children as a challenging and costly endeavor, given the expenses associated with housing, food, childcare, and education.

Besides the increasing age at which couples are choosing to marry, there has been a global decline in early childbearing. In more developed regions and in many less developed countries, such as China and India, the mean age of childbearing has risen by approximately three years since 1995.

Decreases in teenage pregnancies have also played a role in contributing to low fertility rates in many countries. For example, between 1994 and 2024, the worldwide adolescent birth rate declined from 74 to 38 births per 1,000 females aged 15 to 19 years.

In addition to delaying childbearing, many women are having fewer babies, with a significant number choosing not to have children at all. Although figures vary by region and generation, childlessness levels are rising, with approximately 40% or more of women by age 30 in developed countries remaining childless.

Using contraceptive methods is another significant contributor to low fertility rates. Various contraceptive options are available to prevent unintended pregnancy, including temporary or reversible and permanent methods. Worldwide, about half of women of reproductive age in 2022 were estimated to be using contraceptives, with 90% of them using a modern contraceptive method.

Higher education and increased female labor force participation are two additional factors contributing to low fertility rates. These factors raise the opportunity costs of childbearing, encourage delayed marriage and childbearing, and shift personal life priorities to career and personal development.

Over the past fifty years, the enrollment of women in higher education has increased worldwide. Women currently make up the majority of higher education students in 114 countries, while men out-number women in 57 countries. With respect to earning a bachelor’s degree, women have reached parity with men.

In many low fertility countries, there has a notable rise in the number of women joining the workforce. This trend is clear in more developed nations, where the percentage of economically active women has seen a significant increase in recent times. For instance, in Spain, the proportion of women in the labor force has more than doubled over the last fifty years, growing from around one in four to over half.

Another major factor contributing to low fertility rates is the significant global declines in infant and child mortality. Over the past fifty years, the global infant mortality rate has decreased from approximately 90 deaths per 1,000 births to 27 deaths and the mortality rate of children under age 5 has decreased from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births to 36 deaths.

Because of low fertility rates, many countries are experiencing more deaths than births, resulting in negative rates of population growth. These sustained negative rates of population growth are leading to population decline and demographic ageing.

The governments of many low fertility countries are implementing pro-natalist policies, incentives, and programs to increase birth rates. While these policies and programs may have some success in increasing low fertility rates slightly, historical data show that once a fertility rate drops below the replacement level, particularly to 1.5 births per woman or less, it remains low.

Population projections for countries with low fertility rates do not expect a return to the replacement level in the near future.

The world’s fertility rate is expected to continue declining throughout the 21st century. By 2100, the global fertility rate is projected to be below the replacement level at 1.8 births per woman.

The country population projections made by national governments and international organizations assume that fertility rates will remain below the replacement level. Consequently, many countries are projected to experience population decline by the mid-century (Figure 3).

In 50 countries and areas, immigration is expected to help reduce the projected population decline caused by low fertility rates. However, without international migration, some countries, like Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are also projected to see a decrease in population by 2050.

While many countries are experiencing a demographic struggle over international migration, the proportions of immigrants in these countries are reaching record highs. In the European Union, for example, the proportion of the foreign-born population is about 14%, a significant increase from 10% in 2010.

Similarly, in the United States, the foreign-born proportion is at a record high of nearly 16%, several times greater than the low of 5% in 1970. Additionally, in Canada, the foreign-born proportion has risen to a record high of close to a quarter of its population, surpassing the previous record of 22% in 1921. Australia also has a significant foreign-born population, especially recently from India and China, reaching close to a third of its population, substantially higher than the 24% in 2004.

Along with population declines, coupled in many instances with increased immigration, countries are also experiencing demographic ageing. The once youthful populations of the recent past are now being replaced by much older populations with increasing proportions of these individuals in retirement. Once again, as with population decline, the projected populations of many countries by the middle of the century would be older without international migration (Figure 4).

In summary, considering recent global trends and significant economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors, it appears unlikely that today’s low fertility rates will return to the replacement level any time soon.

As a result, ongoing low fertility rates are leading to population decline, demographic ageing, and, in many instances, the politically contentious issue of increased levels of the foreign-born population. Instead of hoping for a return to the demographics of the recent past, countries need to recognize the probable future demographics and confront the many challenges that arise from them.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population matters.

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