It is almost time for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to face voters once again. In October 2023, when Hamas broke out of Gaza and murdered hundreds of Israelis, most of them civilians, Netanyahu looked done for. Responsible for the worst intelligence and security failure in the history of the Jewish state, he promised total victory in wars of retribution against all of his country’s enemies: Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and their paymasters in Iran. For the past 33 months, the demands of wartime have held together an unruly coalition government in Israel dominated by hard-right and religious parties.
But an inconclusive war with Iran; a failure to defeat Hamas or Hezbollah; and a falling out with Washington, Israel’s essential benefactor, have left Netanyahu exposed. President Donald Trump has criticized Netanyahu for insubordination, citing his failure to fully support an Iran peace deal that the U.S. president urgently needs. Some Democrats, and many leaders around the world, have accused Netanyahu and Israeli forces of war crimes, which they deny.
Israelis must head to the polls by Oct. 27. Their prime minister is in real political trouble. The central issue of the upcoming election in the country will be Netanyahu’s failure to deliver the clear military victories and restoration of security he promised. Millions of Israelis also remember the corruption charges still looming over him and his bid to weaken Israel’s Supreme Court—the issues that roiled the nation’s politics before Oct. 7, 2023.
Secular and centrist Israelis resent Netanyahu’s deep political dependence on ultra-Orthodox voters who contribute little to the nation’s economy and refuse military service. Others note that Netanyahu, now 76, has grappled with both prostate cancer and heart disease, and may judge him no longer fit to serve.
But Israel’s longest-serving PM still has a fighting chance, because the opposition may not successfully form a government of its own. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid have lost support in recent weeks to a new party led by former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who has gained credibility in part because his son and nephew were killed fighting Hamas in Gaza.
If Bennett, Lapid, and Eisenkot joined forces, they could probably form the next government. But both Bennett and Eisenkot want the top job and believe they can win. A fractured opposition that prevails in elections but can’t agree who’s in charge may be Netanyahu’s best chance. He would then have a window to cut a deal—likely with Blue & White party leader Benny Gantz—to stay in power.
In the near term, this election is unlikely to mean much for Israel’s economy, which boasts a strong tech sector and now benefits from war-related production. Markets and the currency remain robust. Unemployment is low, in part because many workers are now serving in the army. A government without Netanyahu would certainly find a warmer welcome in Europe, reducing the risks of sanctions over Israeli actions in Gaza. It might also slow the exodus from Israel of liberal Israelis worried about Israel’s direction and international isolation.
An opposition win would not weaken Israel’s determination to work with Lebanon’s government to disarm Hezbollah. Any Israeli government would move toward a partial Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon while insisting on the right to strike back at future Hezbollah threats. A Netanyahu loss would make Israeli annexation of the West Bank less likely—though one should not expect any serious talk of a Palestinian state.
The biggest difference between another Netanyahu government and an opposition win lies in each side’s approach to a battered but newly emboldened government in Tehran. A new prime minister, eager to repair relations with Washington, would be far less likely than Netanyahu to launch major new strikes inside Iran. Limited attacks and covert operations would remain possible, with the focus on preparing for the next war instead of prosecuting the current one.
So this election will likely be the voters’ verdict on Netanyahu himself. The war has delayed a political reckoning. That delay is almost over.
English (US) · 