Why Osun’s election matters for Nigeria’s 2027 vote

Osogbo, Nigeria – On Saturday, voters in southwestern Nigeria’s Osun State will choose their next governor. On paper, it is a contest over who will run a state of about 4.7 million people. But for Nigeria’s political class, it carries a broader question: What could the result reveal about the alliances, voter loyalties and political machinery that could shape the 2027 presidential election?Osun is holding an off-cycle election, meaning its governor is elected separately from the presidential and National Assembly. With the next general election due in 2027, Osun is one of the last major electoral tests before the national vote.The result will not predict who wins the presidency, but it could offer an early indication of whether President Bola Tinubu’s political influence in the southwest still translates into votes.Several parties are contesting the election, but the race is largely centred on three candidates: incumbent Ademola Adeleke, who won the governorship on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket in 2022 and is now seeking re-election on the Accord Party platform; Bola Oyebamiji of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); and Najeem Folasayo Salaam of the African Democ...