A TOP secret American security document has revealed which global superpower would win if China and the US went to war over Taiwan.
The highly classified Overmatch brief, produced by the Pentagon, reveals the horrifying conclusion – China would defeat the US military if a conflict was to play out over the breakaway democratic isle.
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China’s prolific production of cheap, highly advanced weapons leaves US fighter jets, ships and satellites vulnerable, the leaked report found.
Earlier this month, President Xi Jinping unveiled new “dirt cheap” hypersonic glide missiles 40 times cheaper than US equivalent weapons.
In war games depicted in the assessment, the latest American aircraft carrier U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford is often destroyed.
It appears the £9.75 billion vessel is no match for China’s arsenal of diesel-electric submarines or hypersonic missiles.
As spelled out in the brief, the overreliance on costly and sophisticated weapons appears to be America’s downfall.
Weak links in the US military supply chain and America’s inability to win a long war with a major power in the last few decades, are also identified.
As reported by The New York Times, a Biden national security officer turned pale after reviewing the document, realising that Beijing had “redundancy after redundancy” for “every trick we had up our sleeve”.
In the last year, the brief was reportedly delivered to top White House officials.
President Xi Jinping has said China will seize the island, located 100 miles off the mainland, by 2027.
Communist China has never ruled Taiwan, but Beijing has threated to annex it by force, carrying out terrifying dress rehearsal invasions in the South China Sea.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Tokyo could intervene militarily in any attack on Taiwan.
The comments sparked a furious row between Asia’s two biggest economies, with experts revealing how knife-edge relations could spiral into a direct military confrontation with one wrong move.
Washington maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity on the matter, but Trump’s ambassador to Japan, George Glass, has said the US supports Tokyo in the face of China’s “coercion”.
Last week, Chinese warships were seen massing in the Philippine Sea, again sparking fears that a potential invasion was imminent.
The brazen display by China in disputed waters show two destroyers, a landing helicopter dock ship, a replenishment ship and a helicopter in flight.
Images of the frightening naval muster offered the clearest public view of China’s maritime expansion.
Why does China want to invade Taiwan?
- Sovereignty and nationalism: The PRC regards Taiwan as a part of China since 1949 and frames reunification as correcting the legacy of civil war and foreign interference. It’s tied to the narrative of “national rejuvenation” by 2049.
- Strategic security: Control of Taiwan would push China’s defensive perimeter outward, complicate foreign (especially US) military operations close to its coast, and help break the “first island chain” that constrains the PLA Navy and Air Force.
- Regional influence and deterrence: Unification would signal that China can reshape the regional order and deter other separatist movements, reinforcing Beijing’s credibility at home and abroad.
- Economic and technological considerations: Taiwan is a key link in global supply chains, particularly semiconductors. While Beijing emphasises sovereignty over economics, control of these capabilities would have strategic benefits.
- Domestic legitimacy: Advancing reunification supports the CCP’s claim to be restoring China’s greatness, which is politically valuable for leadership cohesion and public support.











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