Who does Russia want in Washington?

Russia's President Vladimir Putin holds an exercise of the strategic deterrence forces via a videolink at the Kremlin in Moscow on Oct. 29. Mikhail Metzel/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

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Mikhail Metzel/AFP via Getty Images

Russia’s reaction to the U.S. race has been among those most closely watched this election season — both because of the Kremlin’s controversial role in Trump’s 2016 victory and its current standoff with the West over Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin is on record claiming he preferred President Biden over the unpredictability of a Trump return to the White House. The Kremlin leader later transferred that endorsement to Harris, with a wink and a nod.

“Our ‘favorite,’ if you can call it that, was the current president, Mr. Biden,” said Putin when asked about the election at a public forum in September.

“But he was removed from the race, and he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris,” he added with a smirk. “Well, we will do so — we will support her.”

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser and director for political studies in Moscow, acknowledges this was classic “trolling.”

“Russia likes that Donald Trump says he wants to improve relations between America and Russia,” Markov tells NPR. “Of course we like it!”

On record, a second Trump presidency would seemingly bode well for Russia.

Trump has questioned American commitment to the NATO alliance. He has also strongly suggested he would end U.S. military support to Ukraine and force a peace “within 24 hours.”

Then there’s Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance. The vice presidential candidate has endorsed a peace settlement for Ukraine that largely rewards Moscow with lands it has seized militarily.

By contrast, Harris has said she will “will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies” to fight Russian aggression.

U.S. intelligence agencies argue the Kremlin’s preference is clear by another means: Officials have called out Russian disinformation campaigns for attempting to discredit the Harris-Walz campaign and undermine Americans' trust in the the legitimacy of the vote more generally.

The Kremlin denies the charge and — seemingly aware of bipartisan backlash to its embrace of Trump in 2016 — says it expects neither candidate to improve U.S.-Russian relations from their current low ebb.

Meanwhile, Markov, the former Kremlin adviser, notes Putin’s initial critique remained essentially true. “Trump’s unpredictable for everyone,” notes Markov. “Even for Russia.”