Which teams can qualify for the Women’s T20 World Cup semifinals and how?

What do India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the other teams need to do in order to seal a spot? Al Jazeera breaks it down.

The race for the semifinals at the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup is heating up as all 10 participant nations enter the second half of their group-stage matches and look to climb up the points table.

After their huge win over Sri Lanka on Wednesday, India leapt up from fourth to second spot in Group A and removed the Asian champions from the reckoning.

Sri Lanka are already out of semifinal contention; their final group game against New Zealand on Saturday is inconsequential.

In Group B, debutants Scotland also made an early exit after losing all three games. On Sunday, they will attempt to finish the tournament on a high with an upset of their much higher-ranked British rivals, England.

Which teams, then, can still qualify for the semifinals and what do they need to do in order to get there?

Here’s Al Jazeera’s breakdown of the permutations:

Which teams can qualify for the Women’s T20 World Cup semifinals?

Group A:

• Australia
• India
• New Zealand
• Pakistan

Group B:

• England
• South Africa
• West Indies
• Bangladesh

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How can Australia qualify for the semifinals?

• Beat both Pakistan and India in their remaining two group games to finish on top of the table with eight points.
• In case of a loss against Pakistan, Australia would need to beat India and hope New Zealand beat Pakistan and Sri Lanka beat New Zealand. This would result in six points for Australia and India, and four each for New Zealand and Pakistan.
• If Australia beat Pakistan but lose to India, they would want New Zealand to lose against both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, resulting in six points for Australia and India and four each for Pakistan and New Zealand.
• Should they lose both games, Australia will find themselves in a tricky situation – but their high net run rate may still save them. They will hope for two losses for New Zealand against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Australia will still need their net run rate to be higher than Pakistan’s in order to secure the second qualifying spot from Group A.

How can India qualify for the semifinals?

• A win over Australia in their final group game and one loss each for New Zealand and Pakistan will ensure India’s qualification on points.
• If India lose to Australia, they would require Australia to record a huge win over Pakistan – in order to eliminate Fatima Sana’s team on net run rate – and New Zealand to lose at least one of their games. Group A would then have Australia on top and India in second spot on net run rate.
• Should India lose to Australia but New Zealand win both their matches, the Australasian teams will qualify for the semis with at least six points each – and Harmanpreet Kaur’s team will be eliminated.
• If India lose to Australia but New Zealand lose to Pakistan, Australia will qualify as table toppers and leave the other three teams to fight it out on net run rate.

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How can New Zealand qualify for the semifinals?

• Two wins in their last two matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan will seal the deal for the White Ferns with six points.
• Failing to win both games will lead to New Zealand’s removal on two points.
• If New Zealand win one of their two games, they will hope their geographical neighbour Australia will hand big defeats to both India and Pakistan and help them finish second on a higher net run rate.

How can Pakistan qualify for the semifinals?

• In ideal circumstances, Pakistan need to pull off miraculous wins over both New Zealand and Australia and rely on India to defeat Australia. This improbable scenario would send India and Pakistan into the semifinals with six points each.
• In a slightly more realistic situation, if Pakistan beat New Zealand but lose to Australia, they would need Australia to beat India with a huge margin and Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand in a similar manner. This would result in four points for both Pakistan and India and the team with the higher net run rate will qualify.
• If Pakistan lose both their games, they will end yet another World Cup campaign at the group stage.
  

  Pakistan have never qualified for the semifinals of a World Cup [File: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP]

How can England qualify for the semifinals?

• England need two wins in their two games to finish on eight points and qualify as table toppers.
• One win and one loss will see them finish on six points and enter a net run rate battle against South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.
• Should England lose to both Scotland and West Indies, they can still qualify if their net run rate is higher than the other three teams.

How can South Africa qualify for the semifinals?

• South Africa need to beat Bangladesh comprehensively in order to maintain their top position with both points and net run rate.
• Should South Africa lose, they will need the West Indies to lose both their games. In this scenario, their healthy net run rate after the first three games could still see the Proteas women enter the semifinals in the second spot ahead of both the West Indies and Bangladesh.

How can the West Indies qualify for the semifinals?

• The West Indies need two wins in their last two matches and hope that South Africa lose to Bangladesh or England lose both of their games.
• If the West Indies win one game and England win both of theirs, the 2016 champions will hope that South Africa lose to Bangladesh by a big margin. Hayley Matthews’s team will then qualify ahead of South Africa on net run rate.
• Two losses will result in a group-stage exit for West Indies.

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How can Bangladesh qualify for the semifinals?

• The hosts, who won their first-ever T20 World Cup match in the tournament opener on October 3, will pull off a near-miracle if they beat both 2016 champions West Indies and 2023 runners-up South Africa and end up on six points. It will be enough to see them through to the knockouts.
• In the other instance, Bangladesh will hope they can beat at least one of West Indies or South Africa with a big margin and enter the battle for net run rate.
• Losing both of their games will send Nigar Sultana’s team crashing out of the tournament.