What would it take for the Yemen offensive to succeed?

Two days after the announced counter-offensive by the internationally recognised Yemeni government, the operation named Dawn of Yemen has already made significant advances. Its forces recaptured territory from the Houthis, an Iran-backed group, along the Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.The Saudi-led coalition backing the government has deployed 100 fighter jets, flying round-the-clock to help secure the strait. In response, the Houthis have claimed attacks on Saudi territory.This is the most consequential escalation in the Yemen war since the UN-brokered truce of 2022. For four years, the war was managed as a frozen conflict. Now, both sides are trying to redraw the map.In the coming days, the success of the offensive will be determined not only by gains along three different fronts, but also by the ability of the forces loyal to the Yemeni government to maintain cohesion and force the Houthis to change their cost of conflict calculus.Keeping the Houthis overstretchedThe western coast is where the campaign will be won or lost, and the reason lies beyond Yemen. With Iran disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the Gulf’s strategic lifeline...