What we know about the Azerbaijan Airlines jet crash that killed 38 people

Investigators are trying to understand why an Azerbaijan Airlines jet heading to Russia crashed on Christmas, killing 38 people. The plane experienced an explosion before it went down in Kazakhstan.

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

Investigators are trying to piece together why an Azerbaijan Airlines jet crashed yesterday in Kazakhstan. Thirty-eight people died, and more than two dozen others survived. Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning today. Video of the wreckage shows punctures in the rear of the aircraft. And that has some questioning whether the jet was brought down by an explosion over Russia. NPR transportation editor Russell Lewis is covering the story. Hi there.

RUSSELL LEWIS, BYLINE: Hi there.

SHAPIRO: Tell us more about what happened yesterday.

LEWIS: Well, it's still very early in the investigation. What we can say is that the Embraer 190 took off from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku for an hour-long flight to Grozny, in Russia. For the first 30 minutes or so of the trip, there was really nothing out of the ordinary, but then the aviation tracking site, Flightradar24, says the jet encountered significant GPS interference. And at some point not long after this, the surviving passengers reported hearing a loud bang, similar to an explosion.

SHAPIRO: And what happened after that?

LEWIS: Well, Flightradar24, which tracks planes worldwide, says that this particular jet wasn't sending any positional data for a total of about 30 minutes. But it certainly appears that the flight crew was wrestling with the plane as it began to climb and descend uncontrollably. And Ari, we've seen this thing before when a plane's hydraulic lines are damaged. And for reasons that aren't yet clear, the jet flew east across the Caspian Sea and attempted to land at an airport in Kazakhstan. Bystander video shows the plane really flying in a series of oscillations as it moved up and down and eventually crashed. And we have to point out that the flight crew did an amazing job of keeping the plane in a somewhat flyable condition, and it's one reason why more than two dozen people survived.

SHAPIRO: That's remarkable. Let's talk about what might have caused this. I mentioned punctures in the rear of the aircraft. You said there was significant GPS interference. What other clues are there?

LEWIS: Well, I think some of the other - I mean, the truly important clues are in videos that were recorded of the wreckage. In both the tail of the aircraft and the rear fuselage, there were numerous holes, and these were small - perhaps an inch or so across. And these punctures pushed the metal inward, meaning that whatever caused this happened on the outside of the plane. We know this part of Russia has been subject to drone attacks fired by Ukraine's military. And we also know that Russia has been using antiaircraft artillery and using GPS jammers to try to shoot down these drones before they get to their targets.

Again, it's too soon to pinpoint what happened and why, but surely, these are the kinds of things that investigators will be parsing over in the days and weeks ahead. And Embraer, which is the Brazilian maker of this plane, has a strong safety record, as does Azerbaijan Airlines. The last fatal crash for the airline was 19 years ago.

SHAPIRO: Wow. Well, has Russia said anything?

LEWIS: Well, the Russian government has warned against speculation at this point about the cause of the crash. A Kremlin spokesman said, and I'm quoting here, "we, of course, will not do this, and no one should do this. We need to wait until the investigation is completed." You know, the weather in Grozny - it wasn't the best when this happened. It was overcast, and there were low clouds. And Russia's aviation authority says the jet may have struck a flock of birds.

We should point out that in the past, Russia has been involved in the shootdown of two passenger jets. A Russian fighter shot down a Korean Airline 747 that strayed into Russian airspace in 1983. The Russian Air Force thought that it was a U.S. spy plane and shot it down. And then, a decade ago, a Malaysia Airlines triple-7 was shot down over Ukraine by Russian-backed forces using a surface-to-air missile. While this investigation continues, the Azerbaijan Airlines says it's now stopping all flights into Grozny.

SHAPIRO: That's NPR's Russell Lewis. Thank you.

LEWIS: You're welcome.

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