A Taipei court on Thursday sentenced former mayor and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je to 17 years in prison on corruption charges, along with the deprivation of civil rights for six years, dealing a major blow to both the opposition figure and his fledgling Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
The ruling bars Ko from running in the 2028 presidential election, effectively derailing his ambitions to position himself as a “third way” alternative in Taiwan’s deeply polarised political landscape.
Ko, one of three front-runners in the 2024 presidential election, finishing third with 26.46 percent, was convicted on charges including bribery, misappropriation of political donations and breach of trust. Prosecutors had sought a sentence of more than 28 years, but the court handed down a combined term of 17 years.
Ko has maintained his innocence throughout the investigation and trial. Following the verdict, the ex-mayor of Taipei denounced the case as politically motivated, declaring he would “never surrender”.
The case
At the centre of the case is the “Core Pacific City” redevelopment project in Taipei, where prosecutors alleged that Ko accepted bribes in exchange for approving an increase in building density.
The court found him guilty on bribery charges, imposing a 13-year sentence for that count alone. Prosecutors had initially alleged over NT$17 million (€460,838) in illicit payments, though the court recognised NT$2.1 million (€56,927) as sufficiently substantiated.
Ko was also convicted in a separate political donations case tied to the 2024 election, involving allegations that funds were misreported or diverted through private channels, as well as the misuse of foundation funds for campaign-related expenses.
The case has unfolded over nearly two years. Ko was first named as a defendant in 2024, detained for months, and later released on bail under strict conditions, including travel restrictions and electronic monitoring.
Legal experts say the appeals process could take years, meaning the case may not be resolved before the next presidential election cycle.
Under Taiwan’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, candidates sentenced to 10 years or more in prison are barred from running for president – even if appeals are ongoing – effectively sidelining Ko from the 2028 race.
Political persecution or rule of law
Ko’s allies and party members have framed the case as “political persecution” by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
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The TPP has called for mass protests on Sunday, while party chairman Huang Kuo-chang condemned the ruling as a “politically motivated verdict based on fabricated charges”.
“There are numerous irregularities,” said Wu Jing-qin, professor of law at Aletheia University, pointing to how certain evidence was handled and noting that some materials relied upon by prosecutors were indirect and, in his view, insufficient to support serious corruption charges.
Wu also highlighted broader structural issues in Taiwan’s legal system, including prosecutorial discretion and the use of pre-trial detention, which he said raises questions about proportionality and due process in high-profile cases.
However, other observers reject claims of political interference.
“It has been deliberately framed as political retaliation by the TPP,” said Chang Hung-lin, executive director of Citizen Congress Watch, a parliamentary watchdog. “But at its core, this is still a judicial process about whether there is sufficient evidence.”
Prosecutors have also dismissed allegations of bias, maintaining that the investigation followed standard procedures and was based on evidence.
Both the prosecution and Ko plan to appeal the conviction.
Death of a party
Ko’s conviction raises existential questions for the TPP, widely seen as built around his personal appeal.
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“Without a consequential figure like Ko, the TPP will become completely dependent on the KMT (Kuomintang, Taiwan's main opposition party),” said Yeh Yao-yuan, a Taiwan politics specialist at the University of St. Thomas.
He noted that Taiwan’s party competition tends to favour larger, established parties, making it difficult for smaller parties to maintain independent influence over time.
Chen Fang-yu, associate professor of political science at Soochow University, described the party as structurally fragile and centred around a single leader. “This is a one-man party, with the entire organisation revolving around Ko … their support base will only continue to dwindle,” he said.
He added that the party now has little leverage: “The TPP has no bargaining chips anymore … it has no other choice but to cooperate further with the KMT.”
These dynamics reflect a broader pattern in Taiwan, where smaller parties often struggle to sustain themselves without aligning with one of the two major political camps.
Return to two-party dominance
With Ko removed from the political stage, analysts say Taiwan may be drifting back toward dominance by its two main parties: the DPP and the KMT.
Ko’s TPP, founded in 2019, emerged as an alternative force, carving out a space between the two dominant blocs.
“Taiwan’s political environment is structurally unfriendly to smaller parties,” said Chang Chun-hao, pointing to the island’s electoral system and political culture. While third parties can emerge, sustaining long-term support without aligning with one of the major camps remains difficult.
Highlighting Taiwan’s electoral system, Chang Hung-lin said single-member districts tend to concentrate competition among leading candidates, limiting opportunities for third parties to gain representation without coordination with larger parties.
Yeh added that voter behaviour reinforces this dynamic. Strategic voting often leads voters to support the most viable candidates rather than smaller alternatives, further entrenching the dominance of major parties.
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Combined with the high costs of campaigning and limited access to resources, these factors create persistent barriers to long-term independent growth for smaller political organisations.
“Taiwanese politics has always been dominated by the two major parties, yet there remains a 30 to 40 percent segment of the electorate that supports neither,” Chen said, noting that while some of TPP’s supporters may switch over to voting for the DPP or the KMT, others will remain on the fence.
Cross-strait relations
Ko had long positioned himself as a pragmatic middle ground between the DPP’s China-sceptic stance and the KMT’s more engagement-oriented approach, appealing to voters across the political spectrum while maintaining flexibility on cross-strait issues.
His absence narrows Taiwan’s centrist space and reinforces a political environment increasingly dominated by the two major parties. Yeh noted that as smaller parties lose influence, the space for centrist positions on cross-strait issues is likely to shrink.
These shifts in Taiwan’s internal political balance carry implications beyond domestic competition. Beijing has long taken an active interest in Taiwan’s political landscape, viewing it as a key factor in shaping cross-strait relations and advancing its strategic objectives.
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“Despite not being a part of it, China has always played a role in Taiwanese politics,” Chang Hung-lin said, noting Beijing’s influence in past elections.
From Beijing’s perspective, Chang Chun-hao suggested Ko’s sentencing may be seen as favourable to its Taiwan policy, arguing that “this means that the KMT can now lead the dance in its alliance with the TPP”.
Still, analysts say Beijing’s broader approach is unlikely to change significantly. Chen said, “If one proxy fails, they will find another.”
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