What 1.5°C Overshoot Means for Small Islands

Rodney Bay Marina, Saint Lucia. Rising seas are among the mounting risks for small island states as the world heads towards an expected overshoot of 1.5°C. Credit: Alison Kentish/IPSby Alison Kentish (castries, saint lucia)Tuesday, September 08, 2026Inter Press Service CASTRIES, Saint Lucia, September 8 (IPS) - The world is now expected to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit that small island states have spent years defending as a threshold for survival. For people in the Caribbean, Pacific and Indian Ocean, the consequences will not begin only when islands disappear beneath the sea. They include saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies and agricultural land, coral reef loss, more damaging coastal flooding and mounting pressure on already limited resources for recovery and adaptation. That is the stark warning emerging from the United Nations Environment Programme’s Limiting Overshoot report, launched on September 2. The report examines a future in which average global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before, potentially, being brought back down.The report concludes that the world is now expected to cross the 1.5°C threshold. What is still unc...