We Won't Know the Answers to AI's Most Important Questions Until It's Too Late

Photo-Illustration by Chloe Dowling for TIME (Source Images: Andriy Onufriyenko—Getty Images, Roberto Machado Noa/NASA—Getty Images)Geoffrey Irving is the former chief scientist at the UK AI Security Institute and current chief scientist of Resolution. Oct 3, 2026 11:00 AM UTCFor almost a decade, it's been my job to think about where AI is heading and what could go wrong, first at OpenAI, then DeepMind, then as Chief Scientist at the UK AI Security Institute (AISI). This experience has made it clear to me that we can't wait for all of our uncertainties to be settled to do something about AI's risks.Recent warnings about the potential destructive power of AI are understating the severity of the situation. I believe there’s about a 50% chance we all die because of the development of smarter-than-human AI systems, and that our actions over the next two to 10 years will determine the outcome. To be clear, when I say our odds of being killed by superintelligent AI are 50%, I’m not claiming precision. Instead, I’m highlighting that several of the most fundamental debates about the future and safety of AI remain unresolved. I believe we can’t expect these disagreements to be resolved unti...