US election: 12 days left – Who is ahead, what Harris and Trump are up to

With just 12 days until the US election, Vice President Kamala Harris addressed undecided voters at a CNN town hall in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

Among the seven swing states that analysts believe could determine the outcome of the election, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize, with 19 Electoral College votes.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump delivered remarks at a “Georgia for Trump” rally. Georgia, with 16 Electoral College votes, is another key battleground state – Trump won it in 2016 but narrowly lost the state to President Joe Biden in 2020.

According to tracking data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, nearly 25 million voters have already cast their ballots, either through in-person early voting or mail-in ballots.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

A new poll from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released on Wednesday revealed that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points nationally, with 47 percent to her 45 percent. This contrasts with Harris’s 2-point lead in the WSJ’s August survey. Both margins are within the polls’ margins of error, suggesting that either candidate could be in the lead. Most polls to date have shown Harris ahead in the national vote, with the two candidates neck-and-neck in swing states.

According to the WSJ the survey also suggests that voters have developed a more favourable perception of Trump’s agenda and past performance, while their view of Harris has become more negative.

In a separate analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, as of Wednesday, Harris is slightly ahead in the average of national polls, leading Trump by 1.8 percentage points. However, the long-term trend shows the race tightening, with the gap continuing to narrow.

While national surveys provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, the Electoral College will determine the ultimate winner, which depends on results from individual states.

The seven key swing states that could determine who wins are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Together, they account for 93 Electoral College votes.

Currently, in these swing seven states, Harris has a razor-thin lead in Nevada and Wisconsin and a slightly larger lead in Michigan, which has increased from a narrow 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent. Trump has a lead of more than 1.5 percent in Arizona and Georgia, with North Carolina and Pennsylvania also showing very narrow margins in his favour.

All these states fall within a statistical margin of error and could sway either way during the election.

What was Kamala Harris up to on Wednesday?

Harris took the stage at the CNN town hall aimed at winning support from undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

“I pledge to be a president for all Americans,” she told an attendee who asked about her plans to bridge the deep political divide in the country.

She also said her administration will not be a continuation of Biden’s, adding that she represents “a new generation of leadership”. However, Harris has repeatedly failed to meaningfully articulate how her policies would differ from Biden’s.

When asked about her weaknesses, she admitted, “I am certainly not perfect,” noting that her decision-making can sometimes be slowed by seeking various perspectives and overanalysing issues.

Harris reaffirmed a key promise of Biden’s agenda, stating that no households earning less than $400,000 will face higher taxes. But she was less certain about whether those with higher incomes would see tax increases.

I will not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year.pic.twitter.com/ubnpC2Z5zP

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 24, 2024

Trump’s longest-serving White House chief of staff, John Kelly, claimed he had witnessed Trump express admiration for Nazi leader Adolf Hitler. “He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too,’” Kelly told The New York Times.

On Wednesday, in the town hall, Harris characterised Kelly’s comments as a “911 call to the people”, emphasising his rationale for opposing Trump’s return to the White House. When asked if she considers Trump a fascist, Harris responded, “Yes, I do.”

During the town hall, she also said she believed in equality between Israel and Palestinians, saying both groups have the right to their own countries.

“Far too many innocent Palestinian civilians have been killed. It’s unconscionable,” Harris said. But she said there might be an opportunity to end this war “and work toward a two-state solution where Israel and the Palestinians in equal measure have security, where the Palestinian people have dignity, self-determination, and the safety that they so rightly deserve”.

She also condemned anti-Semitism in the US, emphasising the need for more laws to serve as a “deterrent” against hate crimes.

Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a CNN town hall [Kevin Mohatt/Reuters]

What was Donald Trump up to on Wednesday?

Trump spoke at rallies in Zebulon and Duluth, Georgia.

In Zebulon, he remarked that “in many ways, it’s sad” that his time as a political candidate is ending. If he wins on November 5, he will begin his second and final term.

Trump kicked off his campaign rally in Georgia by asking the crowd, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

The crowd responded “no”. “That was very unanimous, wasn’t it,” Trump said. “The answer is no. By any standard, the answer is no.”

In his address, Trump primarily focused on immigration and border security. “We will stop illegal immigration once and for all,” he declared. “It will be ended.” He then added: “I will launch the largest deportation program in American history.”

He urged his supporters to defeat Harris “with a landslide that is too big to rig” and reminded them that early voting is currently taking place. “Get everyone you know,” he said.

Towards the end of his event, Trump expressed his eagerness to collaborate with tech billionaire Elon Musk and mentioned former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and has now declared herself a Republican.

I was thrilled to be back in the GREAT STATE OF GEORGIA, with thousands of proud, hardworking AMERICAN PATRIOTS—THANK YOU! pic.twitter.com/fqjLw6PrqC

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2024

On Kelly’s comments, Trump avoided attacking him directly.

“Trump has said that Kamala Harris is essentially basing her campaign on lies and statements that can be easily disproved,” Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said, reporting from Duluth, Georgia.

“Trump has certainly been dismissive of Kelly in the past, and I’ve been speaking to other people here in the crowd [at Trump’s Georgia rally], and they said simply either Trump should not be taken literally, or that John Kelly is making up stories because he was fired by  Trump,” Fisher added.

“Just to point out, John Kelly was a decorated four-star general who Trump initially had as homeland security secretary and then promoted to chief of staff in the White House before the two fell out, and he was fired.”

The mugshot of Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump is displayed on screens at a campaign event for him [Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters]

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

Harris campaigns with Barack Obama in Georgia

Rock legend Bruce Springsteen will join former President Barack Obama at rallies with Harris in the critical battleground states of Georgia and Pennsylvania on Thursday and Monday.

This marks the beginning of a series of concerts to increase early voting turnout in competitive areas. So far, more than 1.6 million Georgians have already cast their ballots.

“Georgia is an important stop for both candidates in this election; it has 16 Electoral College votes. It’s quite a significant number, and in the past, it has been solidly Republican, but it flipped in 2020 to Joe Biden,” Al Jazeera’s Fisher said.

“That is why Donald Trump is spending time here and why, on Thursday, Harris will be campaigning with Obama, trying to convince voters that she’s the one who should be in the White House in January,” he added.

Trump will be in Arizona and Nevada

Trump will head west on Thursday.

He will appear at rallies in Arizona and Nevada. Then, on Friday, he is expected to travel to Texas to make remarks focused on border security and migrant crime, his campaign says.

The announcement comes after news that Harris will be in Texas on the same day to reemphasise her campaign’s focus on reproductive care, an issue Democrats consider crucial this year.

On Friday, the former president will be in Traverse City, Michigan – another swing state – to rally supporters.