Understanding the relationship between Russia and North Korea

1 month ago 7

ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:

South Korea's intelligence agency reports that North Korea has sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia to help Russia's war in Ukraine. And North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, is ratcheting up tensions with South Korea, including blowing up sections of a road that once connected the two countries. To better understand these developments, we've called Jean Lee. She's the former Pyongyang bureau chief for The Associated Press and an adjunct fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. Welcome, Jean.

JEAN LEE: Thank you. Great to speak to you about this.

SCHMITZ: So this past week, South Korea's intelligence agency said North Korea deployed troops to Russia. Video has been posted online of what appears to be North Korean troops being outfitted with uniforms and equipment in Russia's Far East. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says the U.S. cannot confirm this news but said if true, it would be concerning. Jean, you've - you covered this region for years. How do you see all of this?

LEE: We're still waiting for confirmation, but I did take a look at that video. It does look and sound like North Korean soldiers. It raises the specter of another country being drawn into this conflict. So from the perspective of the war in Ukraine, it certainly, if confirmed, raises this possibility of this conflict broadening and also that North Korea is possibly enabling Russia to prolong the conflict. So this is just the latest of the contributions that we believe North Korea has been providing. But earlier, we heard officials from the U.S. and South Korea and Ukraine say ammunition and even ballistic missiles being provided and used by Russia from North Korea on the battleground in Ukraine. So what we're seeing here is this very strong message that these two countries are willing to flout international law and U.N. sanctions. I think one of the things I'm concerned about is, what are the other arrangements that Russia and North Korea have negotiated?

SCHMITZ: So as you mentioned, there could be a lot more happening behind the scenes here. You know, as we know, North Korea is notoriously closed off from the world. Why would Kim Jong Un want to get involved in this war at this time?

LEE: Russia is their traditional ally. The Soviets were the first supporters and benefactors of the new North Korean country in the 1940s after Korea's liberation from Japan.

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: But that relationship receded so much after the fall of the Soviet Union. And when I was in Pyongyang, we saw the shift from an emphasis on the Soviet Union to, honestly, a shift toward China and the United States as the main superpowers that they wanted to deal with. So this might be an opportunity to, I hope, send journalists back in but also for the United States and China, I would say, to take advantage. China cannot be happy about this deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea. So there's some opportunities here. And I just hope that the governments in the region are able to find those openings and try to change the direction of this relationship.

SCHMITZ: It makes me wonder how China is seeing this because China always has had a very sort of frenemy sort of relationship with North Korea. It always kept it at arm's distance, but it was closed at the same time.

LEE: Yes, I think that's an interesting point and important to remind people that, even though they may portray this as a close relationship, it's a really fraught relationship. And it's been fraught for a very long time, and yet they're neighbors. And so I think China has a very different interest in maintaining some sort of stability in the region. And I think that what Russia's doing is probably unnerving to China, especially if there's some sort of an exchange that ratchets up the nuclear program to a point where China can't turn a blind eye.

SCHMITZ: Yeah, that's really fascinating. You know, I'm also wondering, you know, if all of this is true - and of course, this has not been confirmed by the United States yet - you know, this would be the first time that North Korea has made a significant intervention in an international conflict like this. The North has a large military of hundreds of thousands, but it's not a military with much real-world fighting experience. Do you have any idea how these troops would fare in a real-world battleground like there are in Ukraine?

LEE: I think this could be a moment or an opportunity for North Korea to provide its soldiers with that training, and that's also a concern - is that those who survive will come back with additional skills.

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: That is something that is also designed, I think, to make the neighbors in the region on the Korean Peninsula nervous.

SCHMITZ: So not to get too far afield from this, but on Saturday it was reported that North Korea discovered the remains of what they say appears to be a South Korean drone. The two countries have had escalating drama with, you know, cross-border flying objects, I guess. But is this more of the same in this narrative, or is this a certain ratcheting up that we're seeing here?

LEE: I haven't seen confirmation from the South Koreans that this was one of their drones. So I am watching for that. But I do think...

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: ...That the North Koreans are looking for every opportunity to ratchet up tensions. They want to create anxiety around the Korean Peninsula, and I do think it's largely manufactured by North Korea. That said, I think it's always important to remember that this region is a tinderbox, that you do have many, many troops that are at the ready and that any miscalculation could trigger conflict. So there's absolutely every reason for us to be on guard.

SCHMITZ: That's Jean Lee, former Pyongyang bureau chief for The Associated Press and adjunct fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. Jean, thanks for joining us.

LEE: Thanks, Rob.

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