'Underground forces' trying to 'bring Putin down landed punch' with drone attack on home

Russian President Vladimir Putin (Image: Getty)

An alleged drone strike on one of President Vladimir Putin’s properties was likely carried out by internal Russian dissidents rather than Ukraine, with the Kremlin exploiting the incident to shift blame and suppress domestic opposition, a former MP and British Army officer has said. Tobias Ellwood, a former chair of the Defence Select Committee, warned that the narrative coming from Moscow may be intentionally misleading. Mr Ellwood argued that Ukraine was an unlikely perpetrator and suggested the strike was more likely the work of internal Russian dissidents seeking to frustrate the Kremlin.

Mr Ellwood said: “I find it difficult to believe Ukraine did it; if their fingerprints were anywhere near this, they would lose international credibility. It’s not seen as a legitimate target and breaches the international laws of warfare. Furthermore, if Western weapon systems were used, it would cause a massive backlash in Europe and America. Until evidence is produced, I suspect this was internal anti-Putin forces taking advantage of the situation to deliberately frustrate the peace process.”

Russia shares drone downed 'en-route to Putin's residence'

He cautioned against assuming Putin’s actions reflect the will of the Russian people. Mr Ellwood said: “We speak of Moscow and Russia as one entity and assume Putin represents the entire will of the country. In reality, he is deeply unpopular internally, but the Russian people are unable to express that. There are huge underground forces that want to bring him down. While his control over state media, politics, and the oligarchy makes it difficult to make headway, occasionally they land a punch. I suspect that is what happened here.”

Russia has officially blamed Ukraine for the strike. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Ukrainian forces attempted a drone attack on Putin’s state residence in Novgorod Oblast, claiming 91 drones were destroyed. He added that Russia’s negotiating position in the Ukraine peace deal would be revised in response. Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would “toughen” its negotiating position following the “terrorist attack,” but maintained that Putin would continue dialogue with US President Donald Trump.

The Russian Defence Ministry reiterated the claim, asserting that drones were launched from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblast and publishing alleged flight paths. Images circulated on public Telegram channels purportedly show one of the downed drones carrying a six-kilogram high-explosive charge. Residents in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast, however, reported hearing no air defence activity during the reported attack on December 29. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied the claims as “obviously fake.”

A picture of a downed drone was shared by the Russian Defence Ministry (Image: Russian Defence Ministry)

The alleged strike comes shortly after the assassination of a senior Russian general in Moscow, who oversaw recruitment and training within the armed forces. Observers say the killing, alongside the alleged strike, signals cracks in Putin’s control.

Mr Ellwood warned that the Kremlin would use the incident to reinforce its own narrative and justify potential retaliatory strikes. He said: “He would never want to give credibility to forces within Russia—to Russians themselves—who are against him. That is the last thing he wants. He will immediately use this, talk of ‘false flags’ and so forth, to condemn Ukraine further. This will likely lead to a knee-jerk retaliation. I suspect in the next couple of days we will see a serious drone attack against Kyiv, possibly targeting the presidential palace or Parliament to cause maximum effect.”

The timing of the strike and the general’s killing raises further concerns about instability within Russia. Mr Ellwood said: “You can’t just say ‘that’s war’ when it is happening in Ukraine; when it bleeds into Russia proper, the citizens of Moscow will start to realise the war isn’t going the way Putin promised.”

Mr Trump’s reaction also drew attention in the United States, with the former president appearing to blame Ukraine on the basis of what he was told by Putin. Mr Ellwood noted that Mr Trump’s habit of speaking off-the-cuff often complicates diplomacy.

US President Donald Trump (Image: Getty)

Mr Ellwood said: “The hallmark of ‘Trump 2.0’ is that he doesn’t have independent advisors telling him what he needs to hear; he surrounds himself with people who tell him what he wants to hear. He is angry about this strike simply because everyone is now talking about the attack instead of his peace plan. It reminds everyone that this is a real war; you can’t just pull everyone into the Oval Office, sprinkle some ‘Trump magic’ like Tinkerbell, and expect it to suddenly work.”

Verifying the strike’s origins remains challenging. Open-source intelligence and satellite imagery provide limited clarity, while Russia’s secretive security services make independent confirmation nearly impossible. Mr Ellwood noted that the failure to protect a presidential residence raises serious questions about the Kremlin’s control.

Analysts warn that the Kremlin’s narrative, reinforced by Lavrov and Peskov, may inflame tensions and distract from domestic instability. By blaming Ukraine, Moscow avoids acknowledging internal dissent while signalling potential retaliatory strikes abroad.

As diplomatic efforts continue under the shadow of these events, the true nature of the Valdai incident remains a subject of intense international scrutiny. The convergence of internal Russian unrest, Kremlin opportunism, and the unpredictable nature of American foreign policy suggests that this event will remain a central, complicating factor in any future path toward peace.