5 days ago
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The UK's Ministry of Defence has issued a new assessment of Vladimir Putin's war progress in Ukraine, which will make uncomfortable reading for the Kremlin. The analysis comes as Ukraine's President Zelensky prepares for a crucial meeting with Donald Trump in the White House to discuss the outcome of Friday's Alaska peace summit.
Reports suggest that the Russian President has not abandoned his maximalist goals in Ukraine, which would amount to Kyiv's capitulation and subjugation to Moscow. The Kremlin tyrant has reportedly offered to freeze the current front lines in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing its troops from Luhansk and Donetsk, thereby ceding the Donbas in its entirety. Contrary to earlier reports, Putin has not proposed withdrawing any of his forces from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
The Kremlin declared the above four regions to be Russian territories in September 2022, following sham referenda. Despite over three years of bitter and intense fighting, Putin's army still does not fully control any of the four regions.
It controls 88% of the Donbas—that includes all of Luhansk and 75% of Donetsk—as well as about 74% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Britain's Ministry of Defence predicts it would take many more years of fighting and potentially almost two million more casualties for Russia to achieve full control of all four territories.
The UK's intelligence analysts wrote in their latest war bulletin: "Based on the rate of Russia's incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100% of the four Ukrainian oblasts' (regions) territory.
"Based on Russia's average daily casualty rate in 2025 so far, as reported by the Ukrainian Gen Staff, 4.4 years of war would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed and wounded). This is in addition to the approximately 1,060,000 casualties Russia has already likely sustained since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including around 250,000 killed or missing (presumed dead).
"Russia announced the illegal and erroneous annexation of the four internationally-recognised Ukrainian oblasts, including those areas under Ukrainian control, in September 2022, contradicting Russia's own formal recognition of Ukraine's independence and sovereignty following the collapse of the Soviet Union."
The US President appears to have aligned himself fully with Putin following the Alaska meeting, which produced no Russian concessions or agreement for a ceasefire.
Trump ruled out Ukraine regaining Crimea or joining NATO in any peace deal and piled pressure on Zelensky to accept Moscow's terms. In a post to his Truth Social website, the US President said Zelensky could "end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to."
A leader of Crimea's Tatars earlier told the Express that it was not up to Trump to decide the fate of the peninsula - the homeland of his people.
"Crimea is an integral part of the Ukrainian state and is a historical territory where the indigenous Crimean Tatar people have formed," Refat Chubarov said. "Accordingly, any proposal, regardless of who - be it Trump or any other leader, to decide the fate of Crimea, bypassing Ukraine and the Crimean Tatars, is cynical and simply insignificant. It would be better if Trump just remained silent, closed his mouth."
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