U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court

A Kalshi advertisement seen in Washington D.C. on March 27, 2026.Paul Lester | CNBCThe Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected prediction markets platforms' requests for injunctive relief against the Nevada Gaming Control Board, concluding that sports-related event contracts are not a derivative regulated by the federal government. The court rejected appeals by Kalshi and Crypto.com, two prediction market platforms, to stop Nevada from halting their operations which the state claims are gambling offerings outside of the gaming control board's framework. The court also ruled against Robinhood's request for injunctive relief. That firm also features event contracts on its trading platform. Under scrutiny were the platforms' sports-related event contract offerings, which 44 states argue are nothing more than sports betting. However, the platforms — and their federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — claim all event contracts, no matter the topic, are swaps. Swaps are a type of derivative under the purview of the CFTC, and the agency asserts that it has the exclusive jurisdiction to regulate all event contracts. The CFTC has even sued nine states to defend what it b...