Trump will deliver the final death blow to the liberal order

The current international system, already on its last legs due to the West’s unconditional support for Israel’s genocidal war, won’t survive Trump 2.0.

The liberal world order, with its supposed commitment to the rule of law, human rights and equality for all, met its demise in Gaza.

There is more than enough evidence confirming the genocidal nature of Israel’s campaign in Gaza. Yet, political leaders in the West have been uncompromising in their support of Israel’s efforts. At the United Nations, the majority of the world has consistently passed resolutions condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza and called for an end to the occupation. Israel has responded by making UN agencies and personnel targets of war. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders. The United States has rejected the court’s decision and Israel has continued to bombard Gaza. All of this has happened under a Democratic US leadership. With the return of US President-elect Donald Trump, we can expect a fast-track dismantling of whatever is left of this liberal order.

During his first term, Trump had already set the ball rolling: he signed a memorandum preventing foreign NGOs receiving US global health assistance from using their own, non-US funds to promote abortion rights; he pushed through previously blocked arms sales to countries like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia despite their domestic human rights record and war crimes in Yemen; he instituted the infamous “Muslim ban” and oversaw 2000 migrant children being separated from their parents and censored  information on climate change on the website of the Environmental Protection Agency. Under Trump, the Department of Justice also declared that Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 doesn’t protect LGBTQ people from employment discrimination.

This time around, Trump will feel confident that he has the mandate to go further. From the first day in office, he has promised a return to the restrictive immigration policies of his first term. It’s important to remember that, in 2023, the administration of outgoing US President Joe Biden “outpaced Trump deportation totals for any single year”. But Trump and his allies have claimed that the Democratic administration’s immigration policy is too weak, “treasonous” and “national suicide”. The president-elect’s incoming border czar Tom Homan has promised a “shock and awe” approach with militarised raids, mass detention and mass deportation of undocumented migrants. Rights groups have argued that such actions would “tear apart families”, involve racial profiling, lead to xenophobic actions and increase the chances of abuse by “law enforcement during mass roundups”.

Trump pursued staunchly pro-Israel policies in his first term. Biden continued with these policies in the past years. There is no reason to expect Trump’s second term to be any different. Trump has promised to crush protests on US college campuses, deport foreign students who participate in on-campus solidarity activism and set the Palestine solidarity movement back by 25-30 years. He has also urged Israeli leaders to “do what you have to do” in Gaza and Lebanon. His pick for US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, came out as against any ceasefire in Gaza, saying “these people are vicious animals who did horrifying crimes” and need to be destroyed. Rubio has also criticised Canada for accepting Palestinian refugees, who he viewed as “terrorists” presenting a security threat to the US.

Trump 2.0 will also be a devastating assault on gender equality, reproductive freedoms, and trans rights. At home, there will be even more restrictions on access to abortion services. Some human rights organisations also expect an uptick in surveillance and prosecution of abortion service providers and patients. Abroad, Trump’s administration will weaponise aid, like it did the first time, to prevent international NGOs and foreign governments from promoting gender equality programmes and women’s right to abortion. Biden had withdrawn the US from the Trump-sponsored Geneva Consensus Declaration that works to prevent access to abortion globally. Trump is expected to return to it as soon as he returns to the White House.

Trans rights have already been under attack in Republican-run US states. But once back in power, Trump could exclude students from Title IX protections, which would in turn affect “school policies on students’ use of preferred pronouns, bathrooms and locker rooms”. These moves would be amply facilitated by Trump’s nominee for secretary of education, Linda McMahon, who has criticised diversity, equality and inclusion policies and who chairs the America First Policy Institute that opposes initiatives supporting LGBTQ rights.

Trump will also actively combat climate action as president. During his recent election campaign, he said that he would “unchain the oil and gas industry” from climate change-related regulations. Pro-oil and pro-gas groups support Trump’s plans. They hope that Trump will quickly reverse Biden-era regulations focused on reducing the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane as well as rules like the Wasteful Emissions Charge, which imposes fines on super emitters that “exceed the EPA’s prescribed threshold” on methane emissions.

Global efforts to fight climate change may also be threatened by Trump. During his first term, he pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement. He may do the same with the COP29 climate deal, even though that would have to wait until he takes office next year. His pick for heading the Environmental Protection Agency, Lee Zeldin, is known as a climate sceptic and is expected to overhaul the agency. Zeldin, a former New York congressman, also has a long anti-environment voting record.

Trump’s friendships on the global stage are also an indication of things to come. He has developed a special bond with leaders who, like him, also have a disdain for democratic checks and balances, international law and human rights.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has celebrated Trump’s victory, calling him a “courageous man” as Trump has claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine “in a day”. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi likes to emphasise that Trump is a  “friend” and will be keen to further grow the already cosy relationship between the US right and Hindu nationalist forces. Hungary’s far-right leader Viktor Orban also has close relations with Trump and wants to guide his policy approach to Europe. Orban himself opposes military aid to Ukraine, and expects that as president, Trump would do the same. This is not to say that a Democratic leadership in the US would not work with illiberal forces on the global stage. But with Trump, there will be no pretences. Having built an explicitly illiberal political brand, Trump will not feel that is necessary to even pay lip service to the language of democracy, rights and the rule of law. Rather, he will embrace his identity as a deal-maker and “solve” international problems by negotiating with whoever sits across the negotiating table. This means that the likes of Netanyahu, Orban, Modi and Putin will feel that they have a powerful ally in Washington and that we are entering an era even more permissive of their illiberal politics than before.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.