“Beyond betrayal.” Those are the words that Adelys Ferro, director of the Venezuelan American Caucus, said in February, after the Trump Administration announced they would end temporary protected status (TPS) for almost 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. And betrayed they should feel. Naturalized Venezuelans were crucial in Donald Trump’s re-taking of Miami-Dade county—prompting Florida Democrats to call it a “day of reckoning.” The city of Doral alone (also known as Doralzuela, because of its massive Venezuelan community), voted for Trump to the tune of 61%—Hillary Clinton had carried this Florida municipality in 2016 with 68%. A complete flip of the script.
In 2024, Trump made gains all over the U.S. with Hispanic voters, mostly Hispanic men. Puerto Ricans helped him secure Pennsylvania, and he even improved with Cubans, already overwhelmingly Republican. He didn’t trick anyone. His stance on immigration was, and is, draconic. He stood by as his supporters demonized and humiliated Latinos of every origin. “When I talked about the border, you know who the biggest fans of that were? (They) were the Hispanics, Latinos,” Trump said at a rally in Miami in November 2022, days before announcing his second White House bid. “Everybody said, ‘Oh, he's going to hurt himself with Hispanics.’ Actually, it turned out to be the exact opposite.”
Read More on Trump’s 100 Days and Immigration: How America Became Afraid of the Other by Viet Thanh Nguyẽn
It begs the question: Are Latinos OK with what has proved a scorched-earth approach against big segments of the Hispanic community, just three months into his presidency? Or are there signs of regret—of buyer’s remorse?
The jury is still out. “The Hispanic Voter” is not a monolith, and so the answer varies. The most overtly targeted community, Venezuelans, seem to be taking a turn. Many supported Trump because of their collective allergy toward anything remotely lefty—seeing Hugo Chávez or his successor Nicolás Maduro’s shadow on Kamala Harris. They held onto the hope that Trump would somehow oust the leftist autocrat (some dreaming of Marines storming the Venezuelan presidential palace). What a rude awakening when the first overture toward Maduro’s regime was a warm diplomatic meeting, negotiating for the release of six imprisoned Americans. A few days later, in early February, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced the first round of termination of TPS protections for Venezuelans, citing “notable improvements in… the economy, public health, and crime that allow for these nationals to be safely returned to their home country.” The idea that the country is now safer for exiles to return—after Maduro stole an election and became even more repressive—is both a lie, and an insult to Venezuelans’ intelligence.
The Trump Administration has started on Cubans as well. In March, Trump ended a “parole” program (established by Joe Biden) that allowed over 100,000 Cubans to live and work in the U.S. A much more established, and powerful, voting block for Republicans, it makes the move a head-scratcher. The Administration is banking on older Cubans’ strong anti-immigrant sentiment, and, for now, it may be panning out. The reactions have been tepid so far. But there seems to be a concerted effort to begin deporting Cubans en-masse, with hundreds of them being detained, or given deportation orders, during previously routine immigration check-ins. What will happen when the Cuban community starts to feel these losses in earnest? When it starts to affect their own families, or their businesses? The Trump Administration is gambling here with a vital Republican constituency in Florida.
And then we have the shocking, stomach churning, and legally complex deportations to El Salvador’s maximum-security prison, Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CECOT). In a bizarre invocation of a 1700’s law, Trump has deported, without due process, hundreds of immigrants, not to their home country, but to El Salvador. He’s suggested that American citizens (he calls them “the homegrowns”) are next. We already know that some were sent in error, like Kilmar Abrego Garcia; or were not associated with gang activity, like Andry José Hernández Romero, a gay hairdresser with no criminal record. They, among others, are now living in the most dehumanizing conditions imaginable, with the real possibility of never getting out again. As footage of these cruel and unusual deportations have flooded American media, it will certainly put to the test Trump’s theory that Latinos love him because of his iron fist on immigration.
Read More on Trump’s 100 Days and Immigration: How the U.S. Betrayed International Students by Susan Thomas
The last piece of the puzzle is the economy—Trump’s economic message is the reason many pundits credit him for his gains with Hispanic males. The Administration would love to believe that they are now part of his base, but a detailed analysis of voting records carried out by POLITICO seems to indicate otherwise. In 2024 Latinos were disproportionately more likely to “split the ticket”—voting for Trump and Democratic candidates down the ballot. It should give Republicans pause, and light a fire in Democrats looking to re-gain losses.
It will not help Republicans that Trump’s trade wars have proven disastrous, and that Latinos, who generally earn less than other communities, will be most affected by rising prices. Combine this with the worry from Latino business owners of how Trump’s mass deportations will affect their workforce—millions of Latinos, documented or not, are vital for the smooth operation of huge industries like farming, construction, and retail—and you’ve got a bitter recipe brewing for a Republican Party hoping to protect their gains with the Hispanic vote.
The reckoning will come in November 2026, during the mid-terms. Two things seem to be clear. One, the days of taking the Hispanic vote for granted are over—Democrats will have to get away from identity politics alone and focus on real issues, starting with the economy. Two, Republicans will have to answer for the mayhem created in Trump’s first two years on their own, without Trump’s magnetism at the top of the ticket.
Latino-heavy districts will be under a microscope, and a new Pew Research Center poll show Hispanics widely disapprove of Trump’s performance so far (72%, the highest disapproval rating behind Black Americans). But these are just numbers. The only way to measure how much Latinos regret their part in bringing Trump to power will be at the ballot box.
English (US) · 