Trump likely to leave Ukraine with financial black hole – NYT

US President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican Party are unlikely to provide Ukraine with the same level of financial support as the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden, the New York Times reported on Tuesday. 

Kiev has been heavily reliant on foreign aid throughout the conflict to keep its economy afloat. However, this support could be significantly reduced once Trump takes office in January, according to the outlet.   

The Republican has repeatedly signaled that he would “probably” reduce American spending on Ukraine and has instead been calling for an “immediate ceasefire” between Moscow and Kiev.   

Trump has also suggested that he would be able to resolve the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, although he has not provided concrete details about how he would achieve this. Some believe he could use the threat of reduced US aid to force the Ukrainian leadership to begin negotiations with Moscow while simultaneously threatening to increase aid to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into talks.  

The New York Times prediction comes after the Biden administration has been spending its last weeks seemingly trying to leave Kiev with something for when Trump takes over. On Tuesday, the White House approved the transfer of some $20 billion to Ukraine in the form of a loan to be repaid using the interest generated by Russia’s frozen central bank assets.  

The loan is part of a broader $50 billion deal devised earlier by the G7 countries, which also includes a $20 billion EU commitment and another $10 billion to be split by the UK, Japan, and Canada.  

Last month, Biden also wrote off about $4.7 billion in taxpayer-funded loans to Kiev. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the move is in the “national interest of the US and its EU, G7+ and NATO partners.”  

Trump, meanwhile, has insisted that any future aid to Kiev must be granted in the form of loans instead of taxpayer-funded gifts. 

The Ukrainian government is almost entirely reliant on Western aid to support its economy. As of October, Kiev’s public debt had exceeded $155 billion, according to the Ukrainian Finance Ministry, with over $111 billion represented by foreign liabilities.  

In September, Ukrainian MP Irina Gerashchenko reported that Kiev’s 2025 budget deficit is estimated to amount to some $37.6 billion, or nearly 20% of GDP. She stated that Ukraine expects to raise only $944 million from partners next year and stressed that without donor support the Ukrainian economy “will not survive.”