Pogacar–Vingegaard: Duel for the yellow jersey
Between them Slovenian Tadej Pogacar and Dane Jonas Vingegaard have won every Tour de France of the past five years. This year they should once again be far ahead of the pack in chasing victory.
For the first time in three years, both riders are coming to the Tour at peak physical fitness: in 2023, Pogacar‘s Tour preparation was hampered by a fractured wrist, while in 2024 Vingegaard competed in the Tour despite suffering a terrible crash and a punctured lung in a race in April.
Pogacar seems to be untouchable. After a flawless 2024 season, the Slovenian has extended his winning record in 2025, with victories in the UAE Tour, Tour of Flanders, Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège races. In the last Critérium du Dauphiné race, Pogacar outclassed his Danish rival so completely that it seemed like a display of arrogance.
Vingegaard can still have high hopes, as July is when he is at his strongest. Pogacar could be vulnerable given the effort he has expended in the first half of the year.
Read moreNetherland's Van der Poel pounces past Pogacar to secure Milan-San Remo double
Roglic–Evenepoel: Fighting for what's left of the podium
Barring crashes, Vingegaard and Pogacar are the only contenders for the top two spots in the race. That leaves just one place on the podium – a place targeted by a number of outsiders, starting with Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic.
For his second appearance in the Tour de France, Evenepoel, a Belgian who rides for the Soudal-Quickstep team, has big ambitions. He finished third last year, while also earning the white jersey for best young rider, and is aiming to reprise his performance and even win another stage. The time trial in the Norman city of Caen in Stage 5 is already in his sights. Evenepoel won two Olympic gold medals in cycling in 2024 and lets it be known that he wants to give the two Tour favourites a run for their money.
Faced with this trio of young riders, 35-year-old veteran Roglic is still hoping to win his first Tour de France, the only Grand Tour race – the other two are the Giro in Italy and the Vuelta in Spain – that he has not won.
Since his withdrawal from this year’s Giro after multiple crashes, he has been training away from the public eye. His team Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has provided him with “bodyguards”, secondary riders to safely escort him along the course until the mountain stages begin on July 14. It will then be up to Roglic to shine, bringing all his experience to bear.
And if Roglic isn’t able to finish the race, as has been the case in his last three Tours, the door will be wide open for Florian Lipowitz, his young lieutenant, who has had a remarkable season so far this year.
Jorgenson–Almeida: Battle of the ambitious lieutenants
Both Pogacar and Vingegaard are coming to the Tour de France with their own "dream team" of riders. Vingegaard’s Dutch team Visma–Lease a Bike features Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss and Wout Van Aert, while UAE Team Emirates XRG has João Almeida, Adam Yates and Pavel Sivakov to support the reigning Tour champion Pogacar.
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Each of these “secondary” riders would be capable of competing for a top place in the overall race if a team were built around them. Even while assisting their leaders, the strongest among them could still make it onto the podium, just as Yates did in 2023. On the Visma side, the American Jorgenson perhaps has a chance for a top finish. He won this year’s Paris-Nice race after stepping in at short notice to replace Vingegaard, who crashed and suffered a concussion at the fifth stage of the race.
A rider from UAE Team Emirates, João Almeida is one to watch – even team leader Pogacar may keep tabs on him. The Portuguese rider is the best stage race rider of 2025. He won the Tour of the Basque Country, the Tour of Romandie and the Tour of Switzerland in succession. Whether he would put his personal ambitions ahead of supporting the all-conquering Pogacar is an open question.
Vauquelin–Martin-Guyonnet: Who will be the best Frenchman?
Bernard Hinault was the last Frenchman to win the Tour in 1985, and the chances of a French winner this year are slim. For a Frenchman to win, “the other riders would have to fall down”, Hinault said this week. But even if winning the Tour is not in the cards, there are contenders to capture the hearts of French cycling fans.
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Two Normandy-born riders are likely candidates to find favour with home fans. The first, Kévin Vauquelin, is currently on a roll. He came close to victory in the Tour of Switzerland, has the talent to shine in time trials and distinguished himself last year by winning the second stage of the Tour in Bologna, Italy. This year’s sixth stage starts in his home town, Bayeux, and will be a good opportunity to showcase his abilities.
Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet also has a positive track record in his favour. He has been the most consistent Frenchman in the Tour de France in recent years, finishing in the top 15 every year since 2019. Having joined the Groupama–FDJ team this winter, the 32-year-old leader won't have many teammates to help him in the mountains, but has rarely needed them. He should be competitive in the general classification, while also aiming for a stage win. The sixth stage will pass through his home town of Sainte-Honorine-la-Chardonne – one indication of his growing popularity in French cycling.
Van Aert–van der Poel: Celebrated rivals battle it out in the first week
A casual glance at the 2025 route might suggest that the Tour is regressing, going back to the time when the first half of the course was designed for those taking a siesta – rather than providing drama to capture the public's attention. Race director Christian Prudhomme says this is not the case: the route is deceptive, a "trompe l'oeil" with hazards everywhere.
The first week should be a treat for the “puncher-sprinters”, riders who excel over terrain of short steep climbs, including the hilly stage finales in Boulogne-Sur-Mer, Rouen, Vire and Mûr-de-Bretagne. Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert are ideal riders for this kind of stage. They will be able to show their stuff – if their respective teams are willing to give them free rein.
The two have known each other since competing in junior competitions and are set to continue their epic rivalry, considered one of the greatest in cycling history. Van der Poel has had a near-perfect first half of the season, winning both the Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix races and finishing second in the Tour of Flanders. He is inevitably the favourite in the duel with van Aert.
Van der Poel comes from a family of professional cyclists, including his grandfather, the celebrated French cyclist Raymond Poulidor.
But will he be allowed to show how good a rider he is? In recent Tours, he has been content to play the role of high-profile lieutenant for his teammate Philipsen.
And what state will Wout van Aert be in? Over the years the Belgian has had a string of setbacks. Out of form in the Classics races, he performed better at the Giro by winning the Gubbio-Siena stage, then riding in support of his teammates Olav Klooj (two stage wins) and Simon Yates (overall victory). He may have regained the form that will allow him to compete with his Dutch rival Van der Poel again.
Milan–Philipsen–Merlier: Three contenders for top sprinter
This year, there will be ample opportunity for riders to see who has the most powerful quadriceps in the pack – an honour decided among the sprinters. The course route includes seven flat stages which, on paper, should end in a massive sprint to the finish.
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Belgian Jasper Philipsen has dominated the sprints in the Tour for the last three years and will be going all out for his tenth stage win – and hoping for more. His 2025 season has so far been a little sub-par, which could leave the door open to his sprint competitors.
In six years as a professional, Tim Merlier has racked up 60 wins. The Belgian rider from Soudal Quick-Step is in great form, having already won ten races this year, including four victories in the World Tour cycling series. Also worth noting is Jonathan Milan, a rising talent among the sprinters. The lanky Lidl-Trek rider has big ambitions for his first Tour de France, having won every World Tour stage race in which he has taken part.
This article has been translated from the original in French.
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