The real-world impacts of the Dalai Lama’s remarks on his succession

The Dalai Lama – spiritual leader and head of Tibetan Buddhism – turned 90 on Sunday and celebrated in the small Himalayan town of Dharamshala, where he has lived in exile since fleeing Chinese rule in Tibet in 1959.

Thousands of admirers and followers of the Nobel peace laureate attended the event, including Indian ministers and even Hollywood actor Richard Gere, who called the Dalai Lama, "the most extraordinary man to have ever walked on this planet", in an emotional speech that was met with thunderous applause. Dancers celebrated the 90-year-old in traditional Tibetan garb dyed in the emblematic blue, yellow, red, and white colours of the Tibetan flag, against a backdrop of deodar cedars native to the Indian-governed Himalayan region.

But an undercurrent of political tension ran through the week-long celebrations. The spiritual leader announced earlier in the week that his successor, the 15^th Dalai Lama, would be his reincarnation, following centuries old Tibetan tradition. He stated that his office in India, The Ganden Phodrang Trust, will have "sole authority" to select his successor. The lengthy and secretive process would likely mean tracking down a child reincarnation over the span of many years.

The seemingly arcane and esoteric question of the Dalai Lama's spiritual succession does in fact carry serious real-world consequences. While the Dalai Lama said this past week that he would like to live for 30-40 more years, it’s likely that the global Tibetan community will at some point in the not-so-distant future have to bid their beloved leader farewell.

The selection of the next Dalai Lama isn’t just a matter of enormous importance to millions of Tibetan Buddhists scattered across the globe, it also plays an important strategic role in Indo-Chinese relations, which hold long-term significance for the future of Asian and global affairs.

A thorn in Indo-China relations

Tibet came under Chinese control after a seven-and-a-half-month-long annexation that ended in 1951. Ideologically, for the CCP, Tibet belonged to China since the Qing dynasty seized its land in the 18^th century. China believed the people within Tibet’s theocracy needed to be "liberated" and reintegrated into the mainland.

There were also economic and strategic gains involved. The high-altitude cold desert holds geopolitical importance, and Beijing’s seizure of Tibet and its vast pool of resources – from rare earths and minerals to untapped water and energy sources – helped drive China's economic growth. 

The Tibetan diaspora first made their way to India en masse eight years after the annexation, during the 1959 Lhasa uprising, which was spurred by the fear that the Mao Zedong-led Chinese government wanted to arrest the Dalai Lama.  

About 100,000 Tibetan Buddhists followed the Dalai Lama to India in the first exodus, with thousands more joining him there as the years went on. India’s Prime Minister at the time, Jawaharlal Nehru, met the spiritual leader and agreed to provide him and his followers with asylum.

But according to Claude Arpi, a historian specialising in Tibet, India didn’t provide much else. "India will never support Tibet openly and politically, unless there are some truly exceptional circumstances," he says. "But, they have provided some support, allowing the Dalai Lama to educate his people and keep the culture alive."

Beijing consistently labelled the Dalai Lama a separatist rebel for his continued campaign for an autonomous Tibet. But he amassed significant global support in exile, particularly after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989.

Political analysts say the Dalai Lama’s presence in India gives New Delhi a measure of leverage with rival Beijing. Many call it India’s "Tibet card": the threat that India would formally support the Tibetan desire for autonomy.

But Aadil Brar, a defence and geopolitical analyst based in Taipei, says that that card is getting weaker: "It’s true that India’s rise has made the issue more important, but India is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, there is soft support, but the government is questioning the ‘return on investment’ it has made for the Tibetan community."

Indeed, India formally recognised Tibet as a part of China in 2003 to allow China-India bilateral relations to move forward. The agreement recognised that the Xizang Autonomous Region (the official Chinese name for Tibet) is part of the territory of the People's Republic of China and India would not allow Tibetans to engage in political activities against China in India.

The region's two superpowers already have a strained relationship and volatile, fragile border with regular skirmishes occurring along the almost 4,000 km long Line of Actual Control. Some have called for India to play the "Tibet card" in recent years, but it would undeniably only escalate tensions between the world’s two most populous countries, together accounting for almost 40 per cent of the global population.

But Arpi says that while India’s stance has remained cool, the Tibetan community under the leadership of the Dalai Lama has managed to keep its culture alive: "You can hear the language, you can see stupas, prayer flags and monasteries all over India – in Ladakh, Himachal and Sikkim – but no more in the Tibetan homeland."

Many Indians also revere the Dalai Lama. Kiren Rijiju, India's minister of minority affairs and a practising Buddhist, sat right next to him at his birthday celebrations and explicitly expressed support for the announcement of his succession, saying that the spiritual leader alone had the right to make the decision. He clarified later that this was a personal opinion, not an official government stance, but it sparked fury from Beijing. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted his wishes for the Dalai Lama, prompting China to warn India not to interfere in matters concerning Tibet.

Two Dalai Lamas

China has been censoring all posts and images in support of the Dalai Lama in China. Brar says that they likely came prepared with a state-approved plan of action and response to the inevitable controversy stirred up during the Dalai Lama's landmark birthday. 

“China has invested a lot in Tibet to maintain stability and create new economies, and it has certainly developed the region. Controlling the land – which is vast, rural, and very difficult to control – has been an expensive challenge for China, so it’s equally important now for the state to control the narrative," he says.

The Chinese state has realised that in order to manage dissent and separatism, it’s essential to gain narrative control of a culture that is so linguistically, ethnically and culturally distinct from the mainland. To achieve that, it will likely select its own Dalai Lama after the death of the incumbent Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th spiritual leader in Tibetan Buddhist succession.

The Chinese ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, in response to the support from Indian government officials supporting the Dalai Lama, said on X, "The reincarnation and succession of the Dalai Lama is inherently an internal affair of China. The Chinese government upholds the principle of independence and self-governance in religious affairs and administers the reincarnation of Living Buddhas, including that of the Dalai Lama, in accordance with the law. No interference by any external forces will be allowed."

Brar points to a recent "signed" (state-approved) paper by Chinese state media outlet the Global Times, which provides a pointwise explanation of how a Beijing-approved Dalai Lama will be selected. The paper states that “the management of Tibetan Buddhism affairs is a key responsibility of the central government”, adding details of the selection system laid out by the 1793 Qing government, which states that reincarnation of Living Buddhas had to follow the procedure of "drawing lots from the golden urn". The Chinese foreign ministry reiterated that Beijing’s top brass must approve the reincarnation.

The People’s Republic of China officially identifies as an atheist state, which makes this decision to give Tibetans a state-approved spiritual leader even more curious. 

Arpi says that in this case, geopolitics is a game of culture as much as it is of politics, and that Beijing hopes that providing a new spiritual leader will lessen dissent and protest among the Tibetan community.

"China did manage to control and develop Tibet, but they never managed to win over the community. Tibetans cannot freely practise their religion, which is a very central part of the identity. So that’s why China believes that if they can control the Dalai Lama, they can control the hearts of Tibetans," says Arpi. 

However, China’s Dalai Lama will undoubtedly represent a Sinicized Buddhism, one that Tibetans in exile (and even within the country) will not easily accept. The current Dalai Lama has a following that extends well beyond Tibet, and even beyond Buddhism, meaning that the likelihood of a second spiritual leader being accepted outside China is low.

In his book "Voice for the Voiceless", released in March 2025, the Dalai Lama said his successor would be born in the "free world", outside China. That statement, along with his recent declaration that the centuries-old tradition of succession through reincarnation would continue in the hands of his Gaden Phodrang Trust, based in India, has assured that China’s Dalai Lama will not be left unchallenged.

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“It’s not a region that China can just let be. There’s a generation still alive that remembers the Dalai Lama before his exile, and tradition and oral history continues to exist. Their memory cannot be wiped out,” says Brar.

But Arpi says that even if the trust finds the next Dalai Lama soon, it could take a decade or longer to train him in a way that would enable him to have any real influence over the community. "This is a significant amount of time for China to assert its influence," he says, adding that there’s also a danger that support from India will decline after the death of the incumbent, depending on where the Dalai Lama is born. On the other hand, if the successor is found inside India, it could aggravate neighbouring China even further and force the state to take a stand.

But while the question of succession within the Tibetan community holds immense importance, Arpi says that the current Dalai Lama has created a resistance movement that remains strong. "It’s what he represents that is more difficult to erase."