The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may escalate war in Lebanon

The future of Hamas and the war in Gaza now that the organization's leader is dead.

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

What might the killing of the architect of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinwar, mean for the conflict between Israel and Hamas? NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi joins us now from Tel Aviv. Hadeel, thanks for being with us.

HADEEL AL-SHALCHI, BYLINE: Good morning. Thank you.

SIMON: We're learning more about the circumstances around the killing of Sinwar, aren't we?

AL-SHALCHI: Yeah, exactly. So I'll just let you know that Israeli military has actually been chasing Sinwar for more than a year now, and they finally got him, but by chance. So what happened is the military said on Wednesday that they were shooting at some Hamas militants running into a building in southern Gaza. And then a drone video showed a wounded man sitting inside the building, his face covered, and then he threw a stick at the drone. And the military shelled that building, destroying it. Then troops found a body in a bulletproof vest with grenades, surrounded by $10,000 in cash. And then after that DNA tests and dental records later identified that the body was Sinwar's. You know, Hamas came out on Friday calling his killing, quote, "painful and distressing." But the militant group was defiant. It said, however many of our leaders you kill, it won't sway us, and we'll get right back on our feet. And then Iran's supreme leader also chimed in this morning. He said on X, quote, "Hamas is alive and will stay alive."

SIMON: What might Sinwar's death mean for Hamas?

AL-SHALCHI: So, like, on the political side of things, some names like Hamas' political chairman, Khaled Mashal, or Sinwar's deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, have been mentioned to take his place. They've been representing Hamas outside Gaza for years in Qatar and are known as more willing to compromise. Militarily, things may not change so much. Sinwar's brother, Mohammed, has been running field operations. So if he is still alive, we may see some of those same guerrilla tactics Hamas has been using. You know, Hamas is a group that fights to become martyrs, and some Palestinians blamed Sinwar for inviting war and destruction of their homes. But now others are claiming him as a hero, someone who was killed fighting the Israelis above ground and not, in fact, hiding in a tunnel at the time of his death.

SIMON: Of the hostages taken on October 7, 101, I guess, are still held in Gaza. Dozens of them might be alive. What would Sinwar's death mean for them?

AL-SHALCHI: Right. So this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he'd guarantee the safety of anyone who returns the hostages. And then, of course, the relatives of these hostages, they just want to see an immediate deal to secure their release. They want action now. But there's also serious worries that Sinwar's killing could actually backfire on the hostages. You know, they could be killed as revenge. So it's possible that, also, with Sinwar's death, any real knowledge of who might be holding these hostages and where becomes more vague and uncertain.

SIMON: Ultimately, Hadeel, are cease-fire talks to end the war more likely now?

AL-SHALCHI: I mean, so with Sinwar gone, there could be some flexibility. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on his way to the region this week. But both Hamas and Israel will have to come to serious compromises if they want to make it happen. But, you know, let's not forget there's a whole other conflict to consider up north. And Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon are trading fire. Israel struck Beirut and launched a ground incursion. It says that it wants to root out Hezbollah. And then it also seems like Sinwar's killing has made Hezbollah more defiant. It said it's entered a new escalatory phase in its war against Israel and that it even has some new types of weapons. You know, so far today, the Israeli military says at least 180 projectile rockets have been fired from Lebanon into northern Israel. And then police also said that a drone was launched directly at Netanyahu's home in Caesarea.

AL-SHALCHI: The government did say that Netanyahu was not in the house, and no one was hurt.

SIMON: NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Tel Aviv. Thanks so much for being with us.

AL-SHALCHI: You're welcome.

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