The center-left coalition of former President Radev will win Bulgaria's election, exit poll suggests

SOFIA, Bulgaria -- A center-left coalition led by Bulgaria ’s former President Rumen Radev will win the parliamentary election, an exit poll suggested hours after polls closed on Sunday. The list is unlikely to garner enough votes to rule alone, which could prolong a yearslong political deadlock in the European Union country.

The election on Sunday was the country's eighth in five years, illustrating a crippling political impasse that has gripped this Balkan nation. Preliminary results are expected on Monday.

The poll conducted by Trend research group showed Radev's Progressive Bulgaria earning 39.2% support, edging out the center-right GERB party of its veteran leader, Boyko Borissov, which is expected to capture 15.1% of the vote. Despite the huge gap between the two groups, the predicted percentage may not be enough for Radev to form a one-party government, and he will face the uphill task of looking for partners to govern.

The exit poll also predicted that voter turnout stood at 43.4%, and that six parties could pass the 4% threshold to enter a fragmented parliament.

Radev said after the initial projections were announced that “we will do our best to prevent having to go to the polls” again.

“It (new election) will be a disaster for Bulgaria,” he said. "It would mean going from crisis to crisis when what we have to do is work very hard to emerge from these crises.”

The snap vote followed the resignation of a conservative-led government amid nationwide protests last December that drew hundreds of thousands, mainly young people, to the streets. The protesters called for an independent judiciary to tackle widespread corruption.

If confirmed in an official tally, the victory of Radev's coalition could potentially bring to power a left-leaning leader who is seen by critics as pro-Russian. Last weekend, Hungarian voters rejected the authoritarian policies and global far-right movement of Viktor Orbán, who cultivated close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Radev resigned from the mostly ceremonial presidency in January, a few months before the end of his second term, to launch a bid to lead the government as prime minister.

The 62-year-old former fighter pilot and air force commander has promised to give the nation a fresh start. His supporters are split on those hoping he will put an end to the country’s oligarchic corruption and those lining up behind his Eurosceptic and Russia-friendly views.

Radev's popularity surged as he has cast himself as an opponent of the country’s entrenched mafia and its ties to high-ranking politicians. At campaign rallies he vowed to “remove the corrupt, oligarchic model of governance from political power.”

Since 2021, the nation of 6.5 million has struggled with fragmented parliaments that produced weak governments, none of which managed to survive more than a year before being brought down by street protests or backroom deals in parliament.

After voting on Sunday, Radev said that Bulgaria now has a historic chance to change the alleged oligarchic model of governance. He urged people to go to the polls because mass “voting is the only way to drown vote-buying in a sea of free votes.”

Though Radev has officially denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he has repeatedly opposed military aid to Kyiv and has favored reopening talks with Russia as a way out of the conflict.

Radev’s relatively vague campaign has left him open for cooperation with almost any party in the future Parliament, according to Mario Bikarski, senior Eastern and Central Europe analyst at the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Radev, however, seems reluctant to enter a formal coalition with the hard right and openly pro-Russian Revival party, Bikarski said.

Bulgaria is a European Union and NATO member country that joined the eurozone on Jan. 1, shortly after entering the border-free Schengen travel area. However, it has been plagued by political instability since 2021, when Borissov — a three-time prime minister at the time — resigned following massive protests fueled by anger over widespread corruption and injustice.