The 10-year Treasury is closing in on 5%. How it gets there matters more

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 09, 2026 in New York City.Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThe 10-year Treasury yield is once again closing in on the psychologically important 5% threshold. For investors, the biggest issue may be what drives it across the line.The benchmark yield is hovering around 4.96%, within striking distance of the 5% mark it last touched in October 2023. A climb fueled by resilient economic growth would carry very different implications for stocks and the broader economy than one driven by resurgent inflation, mounting fiscal concerns or stress within the Treasury market itself.The latest rise in yields stems partly from a supply-demand imbalance as heavy Treasury and corporate issuance competes for investor capital, said Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group, who added he doesn't expect markets to break simply because the 10-year moves above 5%.Higher yields aren't necessarily bearish if they're accompanied by healthy growth. Ware pointed to a resilient economy and steady core inflation, arguing that stocks would be more vulnerable to a slowdown in consumer spending or artificial-intelligence i...