The 10 largest countries by 2100 revealed - Africa dominates the list

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From a global population of approximately 2.5 billion in 1950 to an estimated eight billion in mid-November 2022, the world’s population has grown at an incredible rate.

This growth is projected to continue, reaching about 9.7 billion by 2050 and potentially 10.4 billion by 2100.

While some countries may expect to see a drop in population - including Russia, a prospect that has left Vladimir Putin so terrified that he is planning to ban “child-free” propaganda - others are projected to experience significant growth.

Despite India and China being the most populous countries in the world, the African continent dominates the projections.

In this list, the top 10 countries that will have the highest population in 2100 are revealed, as projected by the United Nations’ Population Division.

The UN Population Division, part of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, collects and analyses global data on topics such as migration, fertility, and population growth. Using these insights, it generates the official UN demographic estimates and projections for every country and region worldwide.

There are several factors that influence population growth. High fertility rates lead to more births, driving population growth. Longevity, meanwhile, extends the average lifespan, resulting in an ageing yet larger population base. Migration also plays a role, as people relocate, often shifting population balances in both the country of departure and and destination.

In 2023, India surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world. The UN has estimated that India’s population will continue to grow for several decades, remaining the most populous country with an estimated 1,533 million, or 1.5 billion.

China, meanwhile, recently reached its maximum size to date and has shown a decline since 2022. By 2100, it is expected to have a population of 633 million.

Pakistan is expected to move up from its current spot as the fifth most populous country in 2024 to third by 2054, with a size of 389 million. This is then set to increase to an impressive 511 million by 2100.

Similarly, Nigeria currently sits in sixth place, but is expected to become the fourth biggest country by 2100, increasing from 251 million in 2024 to 477 million.

The Democratic Republic of Congo does not even make the top 10 in 2024. However, it is expected to increase in size dramatically by 2100 to fifth place, with an anticipated 431 million.

The United States currently sits as the third biggest country in 2024 with 345 million. However, this is expected to drop off by 2054, reaching only 384 million by 2054 and then 421 million by 2100, securing it sixth place in the list. The US' population growth is primarily due to immigration, as the fertility rate is lower

Ethiopia is also set to see a dramatic rise in population numbers in the next 30 years, increasing from 132 million to 240 million. By 2100 it is projected to reach 367 million, becoming the seventh most populous country. Indonesia is also set to lose positions in the list by 2100. It currently sits as the fourth most populous country with 283 million, but it is expected to drop to sixth place by 2054 and then to just eighth by 2100 with 296 million.

The United Republic of Tanzania’s population is also expected to grow at an incredible rate. Not even ranked in the top 13 countries at the moment, Tanzania is set to become the ninth most populous country in 2100, with 263 million.

Bangladesh will round out the top 10, with 209 million people, though it will lose the eighth place that it currently holds in 2024.

Excessive population growth can negatively impact a country in various ways. It strains resources such as food, water, and energy, leading to shortages and higher prices. Overpopulation exacerbates environmental degradation through increased pollution and deforestation and also creates economic challenges with higher unemployment and poverty rates. The pressure on infrastructure and public services, like healthcare and education, can lead to inadequate provision.