Thailand’s political chaos: what happens now?

18 hours ago 3

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended by the Constitutional Court pending a probe into her ethics during a diplomatic spat with Cambodia.

The development comes at the same time as a cabinet reshuffle, setting the scene for a remarkably rapid rotation schedule at the prime minister's office.

Here is what we know about the crisis:

Who's in charge?

Thai analysts say transport minister and deputy prime minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit, from Paetongtarn's own Pheu Thai party, will initially take charge as acting prime minister. 

But just hours before Paetongtarn's suspension, Thailand's king approved a cabinet reshuffle after her biggest coalition partner quit the government over the diplomatic row. 

Transport minister and deputy prime minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit began his engagements by attending a ceremony in Bangkok celebrating the longevity of the prime minister's office.

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (L) and Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand and Minister of Transport Suriya Jungrungreangkit posing for a goup photo with members of the government. This photo taken on September 7, 2024 shows Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (L) and Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand and Minister of Transport Suriya Jungrungreangkit posing for a group photo with members of the cabinet at Government House in Bangkok. © Manan Vatsyayana, AFP

The event marked the 93rd anniversary of an institution Suriya is set to command for far fewer than 93 hours as Thailand reels from the suspension of Paetongtarn, heiress of the country's dominant political dynasty.

During a brief ceremony open to media Suriya declined to respond to queries asking how he felt about his ephemeral leadership, which caps a decades-long political career.

He said his most urgent business had been to "sign a paper" ensuring a smooth transition to his successor on Thursday.

The new office holders will be sworn in on Thursday, when outgoing defence minister Phumtham Wechayachai will be sworn in as interior minister. He will also resume his previously-held role as deputy prime minister.

He is also expected to step into the role of acting premier, two analysts told AFP, the third person to control the office in three days.

But Paetongtarn's father and the family patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra is said to remain the true driving force of the Pheu Thai party, even as its fortunes fade.

Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, left, hugs his daughter, now suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, hugs his daughter, the now suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra before the royal endorsement ceremony appointing Paetongtarn as Thailand's new prime minister at Pheu Thai party headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on August 18, 2024. © Sakchai Lalit, AP

What happens next?

The path forward is unclear. There is no set time limit for the Constitutional Court's investigation, but if it finds Paetongtarn has breached ministerial ethics she could be removed from office permanently.

In the cabinet reshuffle Paetongtarn assigned herself the portfolio of culture minister, meaning she may keep a perch in the upper echelons of power.

But her position and her coalition are severely weakened, even though they still command a parliamentary majority which reduces the chance of an imminent election.

Another Thai analyst, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, said Paetongtarn's suspension plunged her into "a prolonged political limbo".

"Thailand will have a rudderless government with policy inertia and murky directions ahead," he told AFP.

"With Pheu Thai's weak grip on power, infighting and squabbling will likely characterise the coalition government."

What caused this?

The court case was brought against the heiress of the powerful Shinawatra dynasty by conservative lawmakers accusing her of breaching a requirement for "evident integrity" during a diplomatic call with Cambodia.

Thailand and Cambodia have long been at loggerheads over a territorial dispute, which intensified into a cross-border clash in May that left one of Phnom Penh's troops dead.

When Paetongtarn called Cambodian ex-leader Hun Sen to discuss the row she called him "uncle" and referred to a Thai military commander as her "opponent", sparking widespread backlash over her rhetoric.

The Constitutional Court said there was "sufficient cause to suspect" Paetongtarn may have breached ministerial ethics in the conversation, a recording of which was leaked in Cambodia.

Paetongtarn said she accepts the court's decision to suspend her. "I will do my best to explain my intention," she told reporters. "It's always been my intention to do the best thing for my country."

The suspended premier – who came into power only last August – assigned herself the culture minister position in the new cabinet before she was suspended, meaning she is set to keep a perch in the upper echelons of power.

She, Suriya and Phumtham are all members of Pheu Thai, which came second in the 2023 election but secured power by forming an unsteady coalition with its former enemies in pro-military parties.

But analysts say Paetongtarn's pause from office represents a dramatic waning of the Shinawatras' influence, even though the acting prime ministers are still considered their loyal lieutenants.

Tuesday also saw the second day of Thaksin's criminal trial for royal defamation, in which he faces a possible 15-year sentence if convicted.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)

Read Entire Article






<