Syria and Turkey: A path to reconciliation, or a defeat of the opposition?

Plumes of smoke rise into the night sky as shops burn and mobs unfurl Turkish flags in the central province of Kayseri, chanting that they want refugees out.

The video is just one of many that emerged in early July, purporting to show anti-Syrian street violence in Turkish cities.

The period saw unrest and tension, fuelled by growing anti-Syrian sentiment in parts of Turkey as well as fears among Syrians opposed to the government of President Bashar al-Assad – both in Turkey and Syria – that is edging closer to normalising relations with the Turkish government.

Anti-Syrian riots broke out in Kayseri on June 30 after accusations that a Syrian man had sexually abused a seven-year-old Syrian girl in the Turkish city.

The rioters set Syrian-owned shops on fire and flipped cars as they demanded the expulsion of Syrians from Turkey.

Turkish authorities arrested 470 people due to the violence and later arrested a 14-year-old who had allegedly released the personal data, including passport details and places of residence, of more than 3.5 million Syrians in Turkey.

The violence has been unsettling for Syrians on both sides of the border.

A day later, in the northern Syrian city of Afrin – controlled by Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces – people protested in solidarity with their compatriots in Turkey.

“These protests were initially peaceful and headed towards the governor’s residence, but they lost their peacefulness after the demonstrators took down the Turkish flag [flying there],” Firas Abu Jawad*, a 33-year-old resident of Afrin in northern Syria, told Al Jazeera.

Clashes followed and seven protesters were killed “during exchanges of fire with people guarding Turkish positions” in Afrin and another town, Jarablus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

Thawing of Syrian-Turkish relations

What may worry Syrians more than the violence is diplomatic moves that make a rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments seem likely.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a fervent supporter of the anti-Assad Syrian opposition, severing ties with the government in 2011 and backing the protest movement seeking to topple al-Assad.

As al-Assad met the protests with severe repression and brutality, Turkey became a lifeline for the Syrian opposition, providing a base for military and political figures.

Turkey has also become home to 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees – the most in the world – and has also been involved militarily in areas along the border, primarily focused on attacking the Peoples’ Defence Units (YPG).

Turkey regards the YPG as a wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – a group that has fought the Turkish state for decades and is designated a “terrorist” group in Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

But its local partners have often been Syrian antigovernment groups, and the presence of the Turkish military in the border areas – almost 9,000sq km (3,400sq miles) – has provided security against attack by Syrian government forces.

However, Erdogan has spoken of the possibility of rapprochement with the Syrian government on numerous occasions in recent years and, on July 7, said he would invite al-Assad for talks.

“Our invitation may be extended at any time,” Erdogan said. “[I]f Bashar al-Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkey, we will also show that approach towards him.”

Erdogan reiterated that call a week later. Iraq’s foreign minister said the potential meeting, which is also backed by Moscow, could be hosted in Baghdad. Meanwhile, al-Assad said on July 15 that he will only meet with Erdogan if the focus is on Ankara’s support for Syrian opposition groups.

Change of heart?

So why does the Turkish government seem to be changing direction?

“Ankara is not satisfied with the security situation in Syria and feels that the United States is not providing a solution nor willing to abandon the YPG,” said Ömer Özkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, referring to continued US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group primarily comprising the YPG.

“So they are looking at the Russian alternative [of re-engaging Assad].”

Turkey considers the PKK and its affiliates its primary security threat, and Ankara views the continued presence of these groups in northern Syria as an issue that has to be dealt with.

One line of thinking is that al-Assad, who currently seems to be avoiding conflict with the SDF, may be convinced to back a Turkish move against the group.

With the al-Assad government appearing secure and normalising relations with Arab states who previously supported the opposition, many in Turkey feel the writing is on the wall and an agreement with the Syrian government is needed.

Some experts posit, however, that this has already been Turkish government policy in Syria in recent years, particularly due to their coordination with Russia, a strong al-Assad backer which executes attacks on opposition-held areas on his behalf.

“Erdogan’s Syria policy since 2016 has been helping the Assad regime,” said Gönül Tol, the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey programme.

That’s not how Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, sees it. He told Al Jazeera that the government had a foreign policy of “normalisation”, part of Erdogan’s “vision of peace”.

Fidan pointed to the long-running Astana peace process, involving both the Syrian government and the opposition, as well as talks between intelligence officials.

“The region is now in a climate seeking peace and stability,” Fidan said. “The spirit of our time forces us to seek peace and stability.”

“What are our priorities as Turkiye [Turkey]? We are not only thinking about ourselves. What are Syria’s needs? Political independence, territorial integrity – these are quite important issues that we support,” the foreign minister said.

Fidan also denied that the Syrian opposition would be abandoned.

“We are not changing our position regarding the Syrian opposition. The Syrian opposition’s relations with the regime are based on their own free decision, their own free choice,” Fidan said, before pointing out that opposition fighters had fought alongside Turkish troops to protect Turkey’s security.

“It is not possible for us to forget this sacrifice… it is out of the question for us to forget these sacrifices and let them down,” Fidan added.

Some in Turkey have pushed the idea that working with al-Assad will lead to refugees going home, but Özkizilcik said this was a misperception.

“Assad is not capable nor willing to accept the return of refugees and he is not a partner against the YPG,” Özkizilcik said.

“Normalisation efforts have not encouraged the Assad regime to move towards a political solution in Syria but empowered their policy of no concessions.”

Fidan said that Turkish policy towards refugees remained unchanged.

“Our government policy has never changed,” he said. “[Erdogan’s] view is still the same, his will is the same. Unless it is voluntary, we are not in a position to force anyone out of here. The provocative allegations on this issue have no validity.”

Erdogan may hope an agreement with Syria could lead to “an understanding where they will work together to create a sphere in northern Syria where [Turkey] will invest to rebuild and [Syria] provides security guarantees to refugees from Turkey”, according to Tol.

For Erdogan, it would be a “win-win situation”, she added, because Turkey can provide cheap construction and would benefit from the profits while Syria badly needs investment. Meanwhile, Erdogan could fulfil his campaign promise to encourage the voluntarily repatriate a million Syrians.

But rapprochement would require certain assurances for Turkey, including security assurances against the PKK, which Assad may not be willing to give.

“The likelihood of these talks succeeding is not so high, because the contentious issues and disagreements are many and complex,” said Armenak Tokmajyan, a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

“However, if they do succeed, they will kick-start a process that could significantly change the Syrian northern borderland.”

‘Unbearable’ for Syrians

While the situation in northern Syria is increasingly complicated, many Syrian refugees say it has become outright dangerous for them across the border in Turkey.

After the incident in Kayseri, mobs of Turkish nationals began attacking Syrians and their businesses in cities across the country.

The continued rise of anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey puts the Turkish government in a difficult position. Erdogan has continued to back the principle of hosting refugees, and he has accused the Turkish opposition of inciting violence, saying after the recent outbreak that nothing could be achieved “by fuelling xenophobia and hatred of refugees in society”.

However, a struggling economy and the increased use of anti-refugee and anti-Syrian tropes by Turkish opposition groups have made it increasingly unpopular in Turkey to hold pro-Syrian positions.

The general worsening situation for Syrians in Turkey has led to some 12,000 alleged voluntary returns to Syria in the first half of 2024 at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing alone, according to Mazen Allouch, the director of public relations and media at the crossing.

“This resentment against Syrians is a long-term issue,” said Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist at The Institute of Research and Study on the Arab and Islamic Worlds (IREMAM). “It’s been around for a decade at least with [occasional] episodes of violence.”

Many Syrians in Turkey are increasingly afraid for the wellbeing of themselves and their families.

After the latest riots, many streets in Gaziantep were empty as Syrian businesses were shuttered across the city.

“Syrians in Turkey are at risk of being attacked at any moment, and such an attack could cost them their life,” Noor Abu Hisham*, a 42-year-old Syrian shop owner, told Al Jazeera. “I have closed my market for six days for fear of being attacked and having it destroyed.”

Abu Hisham says he left the Syrian city of Hama in 2016 but is planning to sell whatever is left of his inventory to take his wife and two daughters back to Syria.

“The situation is unbearable,” he said. “I came to Turkey to protect my kids and provide safer living conditions but today, this safety no longer exists.”

*Firas Abu Jawad and Noor Abu Hisham are pseudonyms to protect the identity of the interviewees.