On the third anniversary of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), international donors gathered in Berlin on Wednesday, pledging $1.3 billion in aid. The conference, however, underscored the diplomatic paralysis surrounding the conflict: neither warring party was invited, and Khartoum denounced the meeting as “surprising and unacceptable”.
It followed similar gatherings in Paris and London that failed to yield progress in a pattern that reflects deeper structural obstacles.
“The Sudanese authorities do not accept the idea of placing the RSF on an equal footing in negotiations,” says Christropher Tounsel, associate professor of history at the University of Washington. “For Khartoum, engaging in that format risks legitimising a paramilitary force it considers illegitimate.”
He added that Sudan’s army has remained consistent in its demands that RSF fighters withdraw from territories they control, a precondition that has effectively stalled ceasefire efforts.
For Lucie Revilla, a researcher at France’s CNRS, the stance also reflects a broader dynamic. “The SAF wants to impose itself as the central actor in any negotiation, one you cannot bypass, and they try to monopolise any future solution,” she says.
‘The greatest humanitarian crisis of our time’
On the ground, the scale of suffering contrasts starkly with the limited international attention.
More than 33 million people now require assistance, while nearly half the population faces acute food insecurity. Over 4.5 million have fled to neighbouring countries, including more than one million to Chad alone. The United Nations has appealed for $1.6 billion to support refugees across the region.
Beyond access constraints, humanitarian agencies face a chronic funding shortfall.
While the money raised will provide short-term relief, the scale of needs far exceeds current commitments.
“This is a multi-billion-dollar crisis over years,” Tounsel estimates. “We are talking about displaced populations, children out of school, entire regions devastated.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the situation as “the greatest humanitarian crisis of our time, which is not very often in the public eye”.
Violence has intensified in recent months. The United Nations says hundreds of civilians have been killed in drone strikes since January.
UN chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday said the third anniversary marked a "tragic milestone" and called for an end to the "nightmare".
Watch moreUN warns of ongoing fatal drone strikes on civilians in Sudan's Kordofan
“Both sides are committed to military victory,” says Eric Reeves, a Sudan researcher at Smith College and founder of the NGO Team ZamZam, whch operates at the Chad-Sudan border. “And the level of equipment and sophistication has risen, this is increasingly a drone war, often conducted indiscriminately, especially by the RSF.”
In areas such as South Kordofan, now emerging as a central battleground, civilians face an impossible choice. “Where do you go?” Reeves said. “In many places, there is simply no safe direction left.”
Aid workers targeted
For humanitarian organisations, access is shrinking as needs surge.
“Many people have been displaced again and again,” underlines Laetitia Bader of Human Rights Watch for the Horn of Africa on FRANCE 24. “This is not just a humanitarian crisis, it is a crisis of atrocities, with a complete disregard for civilian lives.”
Aid delivery is hampered not only by insecurity but also by deliberate obstruction. Both sides have used sieges and blockades to cut off supplies, particularly in Darfur.
Watch moreThe fall of El-Fasher: A turning point in Sudan's brutal civil war?
“Food is being used as a weapon of war,” adds Reeves. “You restrict access, force a town to surrender and only then allow aid to flow.”
Humanitarian groups themselves have become targets. “They attack aid agencies because they want to loot supplies for their own troops,” Tounsel argues.
The consequences are stark. CARE reports that community kitchens across the country are “closing or reducing meal provision by 50 percent or more”, for instance “only providing one meal a day”.
Revilla says the targeting of civil society predates the current war. “Doctors have been assassinated. Associations dismantled. For years, NGOs have had to rely on Sudanese staff operating in extremely dangerous conditions,” she continues.
Underfunded
Diplomatic efforts led by the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, the so-called "Quad", have repeatedly stalled.
Analysts point to conflicting agendas among external powers. The UAE, in particular, has been accused of backing the RSF.
“They are reluctant to see a democratically led state emerge in Sudan,” says professor Revilla. “Maintaining influence appears to be the priority.”
Reeves is more blunt: “Behind all of this is the UAE, which sees the RSF as a military instrument in Africa. Without serious pressure on Abu Dhabi, it is hard to see the trajectory changing.”
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