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Sudan’s military announced on Friday that it had recaptured the Republican Palace in Khartoum, marking a major moment in its ongoing war with the paramilitary
Rapid Support Forces
(RSF). Once a heavily guarded RSF stronghold, the palace was a key strategic target in the fight for control of Sudan’s capital.
Videos circulating online showed military personnel inside the palace, with a captain confirming the takeover, noting that it coincided with the 21st day of Ramadan. Footage revealed portions of the palace in ruins, with soldiers stepping over shattered tiles, chanting “God is the greatest!” as they brandished their weapons.
Despite this victory, the war is far from over. The RSF still holds large parts of Khartoum, Darfur, and other regions, continuing to pose a formidable challenge.
How did Sudan’s war begin?
Sudan has been in turmoil since April 2023, when fighting erupted between the country’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The roots of the conflict trace back to the power struggle between Sudan’s de facto ruler, Gen.
Abdel-Fattah Burhan
, and RSF leader Gen.
Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo
(known as Hemedti). Both men were key figures in Sudan’s military leadership and had worked together to oust former dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, as well as stage a coup in 2021 that derailed Sudan’s democratic transition.
Tensions escalated when disagreements arose over plans to integrate the RSF into Sudan’s military, which would have reduced Dagalo’s power. The breakdown of negotiations led to violent clashes, spiraling into a full-scale war.
Who are the RSF?
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) originated from the Janjaweed militias, which were accused of committing genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region in the early 2000s. Under al-Bashir’s rule, the Janjaweed were formalized into the RSF and given significant power.
The RSF operates as a well-equipped and highly mobile force, relying on guerrilla warfare tactics. Unlike the Sudanese military, which controls the country’s air force and heavy artillery, the RSF specializes in urban combat, ambushes, and hit-and-run attacks. It has gained control of large areas in Sudan, particularly in Darfur, and is accused of numerous human rights abuses.
Why is the Republican Palace important?
The Republican Palace, located in central Khartoum, has been a historic seat of power in Sudan. It served as the presidential residence before the war and holds political and symbolic significance.
The RSF captured the palace early in the conflict, dealing an embarrassing blow to the Sudanese military. The military’s recent recapture of the palace is a symbolic victory that signals its growing strength in Khartoum. However, despite this success, the RSF still holds key territories in Darfur and other parts of the country.
Does this mean the war is over?
No. The recapture of the Republican Palace does not mark the end of Sudan’s war. The RSF remains entrenched in various regions, particularly in Darfur and parts of Khartoum. The group has also demonstrated resilience in counterattacks, making it unlikely that the military can secure long-term control without further conflict.
Impact on the conflict
- Psychological and Political Boost: The military’s retaking of the palace improves its morale and strengthens its position among supporters.
- Challenges for the RSF: Losing a symbolic landmark like the palace could damage the RSF’s image as a dominant force.
- Continued Violence: Despite this development, Sudan is unlikely to see peace soon, as both sides remain locked in battle for key areas.
What happens next?
- Prolonged Fighting: The war is expected to continue as both sides attempt to gain strategic advantages.
- Humanitarian Crisis Worsens: With over 28,000 reported deaths and millions displaced, Sudan faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Famine and disease are spreading due to prolonged violence and lack of aid.
- International Efforts: Global powers and regional actors may push for ceasefire talks, but previous mediation efforts have largely failed.
Why it matters
Sudan’s war has far-reaching consequences beyond its borders. The conflict threatens regional stability, particularly affecting neighboring countries like Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. Additionally, the involvement of foreign actors, including the UAE (allegedly backing the RSF) and Russia’s Wagner Group, has added further complexity to the crisis.
For Sudan’s military, regaining control of Khartoum is crucial for re-establishing authority. However, unless a political solution is reached, the war will likely persist, leaving Sudan’s future uncertain.
Why Sudan is a Global Strategic Location
Sudan’s geographic position at the crossroads of North Africa, the Sahel, and the Red Sea makes it a key player in regional and global affairs. Bordered by Egypt, Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, Sudan serves as a bridge between Africa and the Middle East, influencing political alliances, trade routes, and security dynamics.
One of Sudan’s most crucial geopolitical assets is its coastline along the Red Sea, a vital maritime corridor that connects the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean. The Port Sudan on the eastern coast is a major transit hub for global trade, particularly for oil shipments and commercial goods.
- Strategic Trade Route: Nearly 10% of global trade passes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, making Sudan a key location for maritime security.
- Energy Supply Chain: Sudan’s proximity to oil-rich Gulf nations and its pipeline connections to South Sudan make it a crucial link in global energy distribution.
- Foreign Military Interests: Russia, China, and the US have shown interest in establishing naval bases in Sudan, aiming to secure influence over Red Sea trade routes.
As the third-largest country in Africa, Sudan plays a critical role in regional stability. Its borders with seven countries mean any internal conflict has spillover effects, influencing refugee flows, armed conflicts, and diplomatic relations.
- Egypt and Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan’s position in the Nile River dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia gives it leverage in negotiations over water resources.
- South Sudan Connection: Since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, Sudan has remained a major player in its fragile stability, particularly concerning oil exports that rely on Sudanese pipelines.
- Ties to Gulf Nations: The UAE and Saudi Arabia see Sudan as strategically important for their regional influence and food security, investing in Sudanese agriculture.
The ongoing conflict between Sudan’s military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has disrupted trade, migration, and foreign investments.
- Disrupted Trade Routes: Instability near the Red Sea threatens shipping lanes, potentially increasing global oil and goods prices.
- Regional Destabilisation: Sudan’s war has worsened humanitarian crises in neighboring countries, increasing refugee movements into Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan.
- Foreign Interference: Reports suggest Russia’s Wagner Group has supported the RSF, while Gulf nations have backed different factions, deepening geopolitical rivalries.
Beyond its internal struggles, Sudan’s location ensures its continued importance in world politics and trade. Whether through maritime security, energy routes, or regional diplomacy, the outcome of Sudan’s conflict will have far-reaching consequences beyond its borders.
English (US) · 