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Saudi Arabia's birth rate is plummeting, driven by rising costs and women's careers / AI Generated Image
Recent reports and demographic data indicate a significant decline in birth rates in Saudi Arabia, mirroring patterns seen globally. According to the Alaqaria analysis, official statistics show that Saudi Arabia has witnessed a noticeable decrease in births, a trend that has drawn public attention and debate over its deeper causes. This shift is not isolated; many countries, from Turkey to advanced economies, face similar declines, reflecting broad social and economic transformations. Data from international sources such as the United Nations illustrates that Saudi Arabia’s birth rate has fallen well below the high historical levels seen decades ago. A recent report highlights that the average number of births per 1,000 people is now around 15.7, compared with much higher rates in the mid‑20th century.
This represents a clear demographic transition toward smaller family sizes.
Drivers of UAE population decline
The sharp decline in births is primarily driven by sweeping socioeconomic changes that have empowered Saudi women and elevated the cost of raising children.
- Experts, including Nobel laureate economist Claudia Goldin, cite the increased agency and education of women as the central cause globally, a factor deeply evident in Saudi Arabia. Higher education levels, coupled with the government’s push for female participation in the workforce (rising to over 33% post-Vision 2030), have led many women to prioritize careers. This results in postponed marriages and, consequently, delaying the age at which they begin childbearing.
- The financial burden of modern parenting has become a crucial determinant for young couples. With rising costs of living, couples can no longer afford the large traditional villas their parents owned, pushing them into smaller apartments that can accommodate fewer children. Furthermore, a desire for high-quality education means budgeting for expensive private international schooling. This economic reality forces young families to practice careful family planning, limiting their families to two or three children.
- Increased health awareness and easier access to contraception have given families the tools for effective planning. A sociology professor noted that this trend of delayed marriage is a significant contributor to the country’s falling fertility rate.
Expert rapid aging warnings
The UAE faces a unique and pressing demographic challenge: rapid aging, projected to see the population aged 60 and over increase from approximately 3.1% in 2020 to almost 20% by 2050.
Experts caution that this swift shift will strain the healthcare and social systems, necessitating immediate policy adaptation. This aging is driven by increased life expectancy and is complicated by the large expatriate population, which utilizes the same services. The General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) and the Ministry of Health (MOH) are key agencies involved, with the government launching the National Framework for Healthy Ageing to proactively manage the ensuing "triple burden" on healthcare, pensions, and specialized care facilities, aiming to turn the aging trend into a sustainable "Silver Economy" opportunity.
What UAE authorities are doing?
Recognising that falling birth rates and demographic change are long‑term challenges with broad social and economic impact, the UAE government has launched several initiatives to support families, encourage marriage, and address declining fertility trends in a comprehensive manner.One major development is the launch of the National Family Growth Agenda 2031, which aims to make family stability and growth a national priority.
As part of this effort, the UAE has designated 2026 as the “Year of the Family”, reinforcing the leadership’s focus on policies that strengthen the family unit and promote conditions favourable for raising children. Authorities describe this as a strategic priority to place families “at the centre of policy,” recognising the social importance of marriage, parenting, and intergenerational stability.
Another pillar of the UAE’s response is the proposed creation of a Federal Fertility Centre, designed to integrate reproductive counselling and advanced fertility services into the national primary healthcare system.
This initiative aims to improve access to fertility treatments, especially for Emirati couples, and reduce barriers that may delay or prevent childbearing. At the local level, programmes such as Abu Dhabi’s Emirati Family Growth Support Programme have been introduced to encourage marriage and family formation among citizens. Launched by the Abu Dhabi Department of Community Development, this strategy includes housing support, financial assistance for newlyweds, and services aimed at helping young couples establish stable households. These measures are part of a broader quality‑of‑life strategy that seeks to reduce economic barriers to marriage and early family growth.
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