Russian secret services target Latvia as Ukraine's drone offensive worries the Kremlin

Moscow launched a fierce attack on Latvia at the UN on Monday. Vasily Nebenzia, Russia’s representative to the Security Council, accused Riga, without providing any evidence, of allowing Ukraine to use its territory to prepare drone strikes against Russia.

The Russian diplomat then threatened the Baltic state with military retaliation, claiming that NATO would not come to its aid, even though Latvia has been a member of the organisation since 2004.

Highly aggressive Russian spies

Before Nebenzia’s outburst at the UN, the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, had levelled similar accusations against Latvia the day before.

Russian spies even named five Latvian military bases where Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly already stationed to prepare their attacks against Russia. “The abject Russophobia of Latvia's current rulers proved stronger than their critical thinking and sense of self-preservation,” the SVR said.

"Russia is lying again! This time it is the SVR or the External Intelligence Service running a disinformation campaign against Latvia," Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said on X.

At the UN, Sanita Pavluta-Deslandes, Latvia’s representative, insisted that “lies and aggressive disinformation and threats are a sign of despair and weakness”. The United States sided with Riga, warning Russia that there was “no place for threats” against NATO members.

It is not the first time a Baltic country has been suspected of providing military assistance to Ukraine, and has come under Russian scrutiny. But this time the accusations are “uncharacteristically specific", said Maris Andzans, director of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies in Riga.

Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia have repeatedly been accused of harbouring “Ukrainian terrorists” on their territory and of allowing Kyiv to use their airspace to carry out attacks against Russia.

‘Crisis management’ for Russia

But with these additional details, Moscow appears to be stepping up the pressure by suggesting that this time, it is concrete. “The Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread extreme and unfounded narratives intended to destabilise other countries and justify potential Russian interference and aggression,” said experts from the Institute for the Study of War, an American strategic think tank, in their analysis of the conflict in Ukraine published on May 19.

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Is Russia preparing for a military operation against Latvia? “This signals more of a political and rhetorical escalation than a military one," said Elina Vroblevska, deputy director of the Centre for East European Policy Studies in Riga.

Nor does the situation on the front line in Ukraine suggest an expansion of the war. “The last thing Russia would want right now is to have a full NATO intervention on behalf of the Baltic states,” said Christian Kaunert, a specialist in international security at the University of South Wales in Cardiff.

These accusations against Latvia are more a matter of “crisis management on Russia’s part", said Vroblevska. It is no coincidence that the allegations have come shortly after the drone attack on the Moscow region, she added, which took place during the night of May 11 to 12.

“There was no real political response from the Kremlin, but we see a couple of days later this escalation in rhetoric from the SVR to manage their threat perception narrative. They’re telling their domestic audience, ‘Those drones coming in are a threat and there is a threat from a NATO country’.”

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More generally, as “Russia is not doing particularly well on the battlefield, it is important for the Kremlin to promote the narrative of a conflict not only against Ukraine, but against NATO. I wouldn’t be surprised if similar accusations were soon levelled against other countries such as Poland or Germany," said Kaunert.

An ideal target

For Moscow, targeting Baltic states – and Latvia in particular – makes sense, as it is a potentially fertile ground for destabilisation. “Of the Baltic states, Latvia has the largest Russian-speaking population,” said Andzans. “Regarding trust in NATO and blaming Russia for the war in Ukraine, polls show that Latvia ranks at the bottom among NATO member states. Russia has more fruitful soil in Latvia, especially in eastern Latvia.”

The SVR also chose a moment of political instability in Latvia to launch these accusations. Prime Minister Evika Silina announced her resignation on May 14, following a series of scandals partly linked to Russia.

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The coalition government had been weakened after a series of Ukrainian drones crashed on Latvian territory in early May and was criticised for failing to protect Latvian airspace, leading to the defence minister's dismissal. This decision heightened tensions between the coalition parties, ultimately forcing the prime minister to step down.

If the drones that crashed in Latvia were indeed Ukrainian, the shadow of Moscow looms large over their final flight. “Russia has been accused of redirecting Ukrainian drones using electronic warfare capabilities towards the Baltic states,” said Andzans.

This Russian strategy of redirecting Ukrainian drones could aim to “make the Baltic states crack and put pressure on Ukraine to move their targets further away from their border", said Vroblevska.

“The Kremlin particularly wants Kyiv to stop sending drones towards the Saint Petersburg region,” said Andzans.

The SVR’s unfounded accusations and the strategy of “diverting” drones prove that Russia continues to deploy new tools of hybrid warfare, according to experts interviewed by FRANCE 24. This is not just a problem for the Baltic states. For Kaunert, it should serve as a reminder to everyone that when Russia is in trouble in Ukraine, it will be more likely to try to export the conflict to the rest of Europe through this type of operation.

This article has been translated from the original in French.