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For many in the West, Russian information warfare still conjures images of hacked emails, troll farms, and social media manipulation during the 2016 U.S. election and the Brexit vote in the UK. But those operations were not isolated incidents. They were part of a much older Russian playbook—one refined over a century by Soviet and later Russian intelligence services. Today, that same machinery is evolving again, becoming more aggressive, more technologically sophisticated with cognitive AI, and more focused on exploiting the deepest social fractures within democratic societies. The latest revelations about Russian-linked operations in Europe should therefore not surprise us. They should warn us.
A report released last week by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) focuses on a new effort, ostensibly by the Russian Presidential Administration, hidden under several front companies, to sow discord and distrust among ethnic minorities and groups in several different countries. Dead pigs’ heads thrown onto the territories of Mosques, synagogues defaced, slurs against historic atrocities—all intended to get various groups in democracies fighting with and among each other, and for the benefit of the Russian Federation. The reporting is important, and more attention needs to be drawn to it in Europe and the United States. But the tactics are not new; they are classic Russian “active measures,” what they now call “measures of support,” carried out by their intelligence services. We can expect more of the same in the months and years to come.
The KGB was very clear on what active measures, or information warfare, were, and how they were meant to be used. The famous archivist-turned-defector Vasiliy Mitrokhin detailed active measures as he quoted from the official KGB training and operational guide: “agent-operational measures aimed at exerting useful influence on aspects of the political life of a target country which are of interest, its foreign policy, the solution of international problems, misleading the adversary, undermining and weakening his positions, the disruption of his hostile plans, and the achievement of other aims.” Sound familiar? The definition is worth breaking down further to demonstrate how it was applied and still applies to the Russians’ tactics today.
Russian active measures are principally the work of the SVR (the Service for Foreign Intelligence), the GRU or “GU” (military intelligence), and the FSB (the Federal Security Service). The SVR has a dedicated Directorate for this work, including information and cognitive warfare focused exclusively on the United States as the “main adversary” (glavnii protivnik) and on all of our close NATO and European allies. The goal is to use intelligence operations to discredit our democracies, mislead policies and political groups, and sow discord and disunity within our societies. The SVR and GRU both did this in 2016 with elections in the United States and with the UK’s Brexit, as cited by non-partisan reporting from the Senate SSCI committee (of which current Secretary of State Marco Rubio was a senior member), the DNI, and, in the case of the UK, by the report of a special commission.
There are always three elements of active measures, as I outline in my book and in its chapter on the same topic: identify the target, determine the operational method, and, most importantly, apply maskirovka to conceal Russia’s hand. All of this can be seen at play in the events in France, Germany, Armenia, and other countries, as highlighted in the OCCRP report, and many other incidents from recent years.
In the case of the dead pigs’ heads thrown onto Islamic centers, the goal is to incite potential unrest and political action by French political groups on all sides. The Russians hoped that these would be reported and activated as intended “cognitive strikes” within French society, and labeled as “racist attacks.” Distrust would be amplified with every media mention. The Russians no doubt (and likely correctly) guessed that some would deplore the attacks, some might try to explain them from one optic or another in light of French politics, and some might actually empathize (disgusting, but true with all such racist and ethnic hatred). But all of these are a win for Russian intelligence.
The Russian goal is to sow discord, just as they did in the U.S. elections of 2016 with social media trolling. Russian intelligence picked up issues then (in 2016 and 2020, in the case of U.S. elections). It will focus now on the most divisive issues to attack: racism, ethnic strife, abortion, LGBTQ, and other issues—again, not for or against, since the Russian services lack any sentimentality and no morals—but to foment societal division. A weakened adversary cannot counter Russia in Ukraine, the Baltics, or wherever Putin next chooses to launch aggression.
The methods selected can vary: from bribing a journalist to write a story to recruiting a politician or lobbyist to help start a political action group to sending actual operatives, as in this case, to carry out fake attacks to stir discord. The Soviets and Russians have done it before, many, many times.
And there is another key point here—the Russian services and their political masters in the Kremlin—President Putin and his siloviki —are not necessarily for or against any single political group or ideology, even when it appears there may be synergy with Russia’s views. That is incidental (including in the case of the 2016 election). Benefit to any one candidate was not their overall goal, though they may capitalize opportunistically in the short term. Any such gains are still subordinate to the overarching goal—to attack our citizenry and democracy, making the West weak and, ideally, our populations divided. The attack is fundamentally against democracy itself, and the Russians aim to get the French, or Armenians, or Americans to hate each other and fight viciously over the issues that Russian intelligence selects for their cognitive warfare.
Democracy is the threat. That is why Putin ultimately had to destroy Ukraine—he cannot stand a free and functioning democracy, yet another one, thriving on his borders like the Baltic states have done for 30+ years since their independence. Democracy and free societies work, but Putin can’t let the Russian people get wind of that. The West has to be portrayed as split, divided, and weak.
The Russian intelligence services and their Soviet forebears have been at this for 100 years, since the Bolshevik revolution in its earliest days. Spread disinformation, make use of “useful idiots” in the West who actually believed in communism, all the while Lenin insisted that “Iron Felix” Dzerzhinsky stood for organized terror. A divided opposition and adversaries would be weaker in trying to stop the revolution, Stalin’s expansionism before and after World War II, or the Cold War policies of the USSR within the Warsaw Pact. Today, they need NATO and the EU to be weak, the transatlantic partnership divided. We should not help them achieve their goals.
The final element, though, is the most important: what the Russians call maskirovka. The best translation for the term's intelligence understanding is likely “denial and deception.” Hide the hand and make it look like someone, anyone else, is to blame. The OCCRP report cites Russian Presidential Administration aides discussing and ordering that the operatives “believe they are working for Ukraine.” That is the essence of maskirovka, false flags, and deception. Just like the alleged Venezuelan manipulation of voting machines, what former U.S. Attorney General William Barr said was a “bullshit” theory (his word). But it makes for great maskirovka—blame the Venezuelans, anyone but the Russians.
And finally, about the Russian Presidential Administration directing so-called front companies in the report, like the SDA and SNG media, with lofty goals and mission statements like: to “compensate for the lost ties between residents of the countries of the post-Soviet space after the dissolution of the USSR, acknowledged as one of the largest geopolitical catastrophes in the world.” Again, more maskirovka, more hidden hands so that even if found to their roots, the roots don’t point to the intelligence services. The Russians use diversified cover for their intelligence service officers across all of their government, including in the Presidential Administration. It is filled with former and current KGB/SVR/FSB and GRU hardliners.
Why did they fail in this plot? Poor implementation and judgment of us, the West, their adversaries. The Russians have been underestimating the strength of free and fair investigative journalism for years. Bellingcat has repeatedly exposed its operations; OCCRP now joins that list and deserves real credit for doing so. But we still have a long way to go in countering Russian active measures and disinformation. Many in the United States, the UK, and across the EU –including some of our leaders-- still do not fundamentally believe the Russians are engaged in this kind of activity. And what Russian intelligence officers, organized crime groups, hackers, and proxies accomplished in 2016 can now be amplified exponentially through cognitive AI—magnifying social media trolling and influence operations ten-thousandfold.
The West must understand that this threat is neither temporary nor improvised. It is systemic, deeply rooted in Russian intelligence doctrine, and likely to intensify as the Kremlin feels increasingly isolated and strategically threatened. Moscow will continue turning to old and trusted tools—deception, division, provocation, and manipulation—because they are cheaper than tanks and often more effective. Democracies cannot defend themselves if their citizens no longer trust one another, their institutions, or even the basic idea of objective truth. If we think “elections are rigged,” that is a huge win for Putin. That is the real target of Russian active measures—democracy. Recognizing that reality is the first step toward resisting it. Russian intelligence services are trying to make “useful idiots” of us all. We shouldn’t let them.
All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the US Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author's views.
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