Refiner stocks are on a nearly unprecedented run. History says it could end soon

This has been a historic run for refiners. Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair each gained over 80% in 2026 against an 11% S&P 500 gain, with the WTI 3-2-1 crack near $59/bbl margins, nearly tripling since January. MPC and VLO have nearly doubled YTD, PSX is up 66%, and roughly a third of that move came in a single month. The 2010–2021 average for that same spread was about $19.How rare is this move? According to my friend Carter Worth at WorthCharting, the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub Industry group that comprises Marathon, Valero Energy and Phillips 66 has jumped 104% this year. As of Friday's close, the Index is 41% above Worth's favorite indicator, the 150-day moving average. This has only happened five times in the index's history. The six-month forward return was negative in all five instances with an average return of negative 10.1%.If you're still tempted to jump, realize the margin driver here is geopolitical, and geopolitical premiums are reversible. The blowout of the crack spread came from hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with those between Russia and Ukraine. Although the Strait has received more attention lately, Russia is a su...