Russian President V (Image: Getty)
Vladimir Putin appears to be pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine - not to end the war, but to buy time to rebuild his battered military after suffering what former US National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton called “appalling casualties.” The conflict has already cost Russia heavily. Recent estimates suggest close to one million Russian casualties.
Mr Bolton said: “I think for Russia, it is in their interest to have a ceasefire because they’ve suffered appalling casualties and much of their Black Sea fleet is now on the floor of the Black Sea.” He added: “I would think they would say, ‘I need relief from this to get back in a position where I can drive a third invasion of Ukraine whenever they get ready.’” Mr Bolton said of any ceasefire talks: “If they hold a ceasefire along the existing lines of control and then say, ‘Okay, we’ll negotiate after a ceasefire,’ you could negotiate in Geneva or Vienna for years and not get anywhere.
A lot of Russians back 'Putin's war' - John Bolton
"But the longer that line of control exists, the more likely it is to become a border. Which means as of now, Ukraine would have lost 20% of its territory.”
He continued: “Unless there are clear endpoints or clear security guarantees for Ukraine, you can have a ceasefire tomorrow and it wouldn’t preclude Russia coming back in four or five years after they rebuild their army.”
Mr Bolton said: “I think we all make a mistake when we call it Putin’s war.
"There are a lot of Russians who agree with the whole idea that the breakup of the Soviet Union was a great Western plot, and we have foisted this upon Russia.
John Bolton was dubious about what benefits a ceasefire would bring Ukraine (Image: Express)
"To get back to being a key international player again, they need to recreate the empire.”
He added: “So when Putin says that, he’s talking about really a very strong perspective inside Russia. That perspective tells them they don’t have an empire unless they have Ukraine.
"They need Belarus too. They basically got Belarus, not formally remerged with Russia but effectively so. They want the same with Ukraine.”
Asked about the ill-fated Minsk accords, Mr Bolton said: “These were French-German initiatives and largely gave Russia what it wanted in hopes they would stop in 2014, which they did. But they came back in 2022.”
Russia has said it is sending a delegation to Istanbul for a second round of peace talks with Ukraine on June 2, as the two sides reportedly remain far apart on how to end the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow’s conditions for a ceasefire would be discussed in Turkey. However, Russia has yet to send its proposals to Ukraine — a key demand by Kyiv.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said on Thursday that he had handed over Kyiv’s proposals to Russia, reaffirming “readiness for a full and unconditional ceasefire.”
The first round of talks in Istanbul on May 16 brought no breakthrough aside from a prisoner of war swap — the largest exchange since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.