Putin set for 'outrageous demands' during landmark meeting that 'only Trump would accept'

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

Vladimir Putin will kick off Friday’s landmark Alaska summit with Donald Trump by making a play for concessions no other Western leader would stomach – but which the Kremlin believes the US President might just accept, a former top UK diplomat has warned. The high-stakes meeting comes as the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, with Russian forces holding large swathes of occupied territory and peace talks stalled. It will be the first face-to-face encounter between the leaders of the US and Russia since before the invasion, and the first US-hosted summit with Putin in more than three decades.

Lord McDonald, formerly Simon McDonald, the UK’s former most senior civil servant at the Foreign Office, said the Russian president would arrive in Alaska confident and ready to push for maximum advantage. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It will begin with an outrageous Russian demand… Putin goes to Alaska thinking he has all the cards in his hand. He is going to ask for things that nobody else would concede, nobody else, with the possible exception of Mr Trump.”

Donald Trump's meeting with Putin previewed by Parry

The meeting will be the first between a US president and Putin since 2021, and the first since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European leaders will be absent, holding their own summit in Brussels amid fears that Ukraine’s future could be discussed without Kyiv’s participation.

Mr McDonald warned that while all wars eventually end in negotiation, any deal involving the loss of Ukrainian territory would be a near-impossible sell for President Volodymyr Zelensky unless it came with iron-clad security guarantees.

He said: “If President Zelensky can tell his people, ‘I’ve brought this awful war to an end, but I can guarantee that the rest of Ukraine is safe because it is a member of NATO,’ then he has the beginnings of a deal for his people.”

But NATO membership for Ukraine remains highly contentious, with many European allies wary and US backing under Mr Trump expected to be more limited.

The war on Ukraine has been raging since February 2022 (Image: Getty)

Mr McDonald predicted the Alaska meeting would be as much theatre as substance, with Putin buoyed by his belief the war is going “sufficiently well” to sustain for a long time. That confidence, he suggested, would drive him to open with demands designed to shock.

Potential sticking points could include formal recognition of Russia’s hold over occupied Ukrainian territories, security roll-backs in Eastern Europe, or restrictions on NATO expansion – all of which have been firmly rejected by Kyiv and its allies.

Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war “in a day” but has offered no details. His willingness to sit down with Putin without Ukraine present has sparked fears of a side-deal, something Zelensky has explicitly warned against.

For Ukrainians like Maksim, any settlement agreed without their consent is meaningless.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not been invited - as things stand (Image: Getty)

Maksim, a resident of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine, also speaking on Today, described daily life under fire. He said: “Air sirens all day long… you are always alarmed. You are staying kind of awake. Even when you are asleep, you can dream of explosions.”

He dismissed the idea of ceding land to Russia, pointing to Ukraine’s constitutional ban on giving away territory without a referendum. He said: “If someone wants to give up any territorial Ukraine, this person can give his town, his district, his house to those who want Ukraine.”

For Maksim, such concessions would not end the war. He added: “Even if it were done, the fighting would not stop, because Putin wants all of Ukraine… he doesn’t want Ukraine to exist. The only way out is help for Ukraine – weapons we need.”

On the prospect of agreements made without Kyiv, he said: “Without Ukraine’s agreement, there will be no agreement.”

European nations have rallied behind Ukraine, saying peace in the war-torn nation can’t be resolved without Kyiv, ahead of the meeting of the two Superpower leaders.

Mr Trump said the meeting with his Russian counterpart on US soil would focus on ending the war, now in its fourth year.

In response, Mr Zelensky thanked European allies in a post on X, writing Sunday: “The end of the war must be fair, and I am grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine and our people."

Saturday's statement by top European leaders came after the White House confirmed the US president was willing to grant Putin the one-on-one meeting Russia has long pushed for, and suggestions from Mr Trump that a peace deal could include “some swapping of territories." That raised fears that Kyiv may be pressured into giving up land or accepting other curbs on its sovereignty.

A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity as they are not allowed to speak publicly, said Mr Trump remained open to a trilateral summit with both the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, but for now, he will have a bilateral meeting requested by Putin.