Putin on brink as 'desperate and unstable Russia' edges towards coup

Vladimir Putin is under pressure (Image: Getty)

Vladimir Putin could face a future coup from his military and big business, as Russia becomes increasingly "unstable" and finds itself in a "desperate" situation, according to a former Polish intelligence chief. Russia's economy is beginning to creak badly under the strains of almost four years of war, with the defence sector in particular feeling the heat.

Production has been hit by a combination of acute labour shortages, severe cash flow problems and lack of critical components for weapons - all this despite government investment totalling billions of dollars. Recent US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft have exacerbated the country's financial woes. Russian oil prices are plummeting as countries stop imports of the Kremlin's energy products in a bid to comply with the White House's restrictions.

Piotr Krawczyk is the former head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Services (Image: Piotr Krawczyk)

Putin relies heavily on income from oil and gas sales to finance his brutal war in Ukraine.

At the same time, his army continues to struggle to make any major breakthroughs on the battlefield, sustaining massive casualties for little gain.

Piotr Krawczyk was a colonel in the Polish Foreign Intelligence Services and headed the agency between 2016 and 2022.

He told the Express that Putin is facing a deteriorating situation in Russia that could ultimately threaten his grip on power.

"The Russians are in a desperate situation," he said. "Their gains on the battlefield are less than satisfactory. Overall, they are not gaining the upper hand on in Ukraine, they are immensely losing in the economy and they are losing markets, as well as friends and partners."

The US sanctions, in particular have had a major impact, forcing Lukoil and Rosneft to offload billions of dollars worth of assets, as well as causing a collapse in oil prices.

"The situation for Russia is dramatic, if you take into account that its oil is sold with at least a $25 discount," he explained.

"The oil costs around $60 to $63, and you have to knock off approximately $25 even $27. So they're selling it at around $35."

Russia's budget for 2025 assumes that the average export price of its crude oil is $70 a barrel, meaning the Kremlin is facing a growing and serious fiscal debt.

The financial pressures and lack of military success threaten to intensify divisions among Russia's ruling elites, potentially posing a threat to Putin's reign.

"This is an extremely unstable situation," Mr Krawczyk said. "I can tell you that it is becoming more and more unstable."

While insisting no 1917-style revolution was currently on the cards, he identified two main groups that could challenge Putin's power in the not too distant future.

"I would say the usual suspects are the army services - the so-called security apparatus - and of course, big business.

"The security services see that the sovereignty of Russia is being threatened by the continuation of war, while business - although it profited from the war at the beginning - now with the new sanctions, is losing a lot of money."